| Assam
to vote under shadow of gun and uncertainty
Samudra Gupta
Kashyap
Guwahati,
May 9:
Assam will go the polls on Thursday leaving nothing to chance or
imagination. After 40 party workers and a BJP-AGP candidate were
gunned down by ULFA in the run-up to the elections, 75,000 security
personnel will fan out in the state. The election for the twelfth
assembly will decide the fate of 125 candidates.
Already, election to the Dibrugarh seat has been countermanded after
AGP-BJP nominee Jayanta Dutta was killed in an alleged ULFA attack
ten days ago. The AGP-BJP combine needs only 50-55 seats, while
the All Bodo Students’ Union (ABSU) could bag as many as ten
of the 12 Bodo-dominated seats. Though opinion polls give the Congress
between 65 and 75 seats, a clear picture still hasn’t emerged.
The Congress itself is banking on the confusion that still plagues
the alliance. On Tuesday, BJP state unit chief Rajen Gohain declared
that the alliance would not get a majority. He has been taken to
task by the BJP top brass, and is to face disciplinary action within
a week, but the damage has been done.
The Congress hopes to win back the support of minorities it lost
during the 1996 elections, though dissidents threaten to nibble
at the party’s share. The Congress has antagonised a section
of minority leaders by denying tickets to several prominent leaders,
including the district president in a crucial district like Nagaon.
The minorities decide the fate of candidates in upto 40 constituencies.
While in 15 other seats, it’s tea plantation labourers whose
votes make or break the party. The Congress has been mostly winning
with the so-called ‘Ali’ (Muslim) and ‘Coolie’
(tea labourer) votes since the very beginning. In this election
too, the party has an edge over others in these areas.
Those who could play spoilers are independents and smaller parties
like the NCP and Samajwadi Party. Former AGP leader Bhrigu Kumar
Phukan, for instance, is a NCP candidate, while Mahanta’s former
irrigation minister Abdul Muhib Majumdar is a Samajwadi Party nominee,
and both have never lost in the last three elections.
Assam’s voters are divided on two lines: those who believe
the Congress has a nexus with ULFA and is soft on illegal migrants;
and those who believe otherwise.
The AGP-BJP combine has been working hard to stress that if the
Congress comes to power, the state’s indigenous people would
be reduced to a minority, while migrants would get an upper hand.
Dainik Asom, one of the state’s oldest and most respected dailies,
has listed the pros and cons of the two main players. But the negative
points against the Congress outweigh those pertaining to the AGP-BJP
combine.
With the Congress in power, the ULFA would be back in action from
day one, and a government that will be ‘unfriendly’ to
the Centre would mean economic doom for the slowly recovering state,
the newspaper reports claimed.
The Sentinel newspaper, which has also been a strong critic of the
AGP for the last five years, said voters of Assam had to choose
between the evil and the lesser evil, if not between the devil and
the deep sea.
‘‘But the evils afflicting the Assamese body politic haven’t
descended from the skies. They have been groomed in the social process
itself,’’ it adds.
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