LONDON, May 1: The US is forecast to see the fastest growth in prescription pharmaceutical sales among major markets over the next five years, market researcher IMS International said on Thursday.

In a report, Pharma Prognosis International 1997-2001, IMS said US drug sales were expected to grow by a compound annual rate of six per cent over the period. However IMS said this was a marked slowdown from the double-digit growth seen in the US in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

IMS said employers' desire to save on care plans and price competition between managed care organisations and other providers would contribute to the slowdown.

Canada is seen growing at a compound five percent a year, while the top seven European markets are also forecast to grow at five per cent to total $86 billion by 2001.

IMS said growth rates this year in France were likely to be two to three per cent higher than government expenditure targets.

However, it said that as the French health system adapted to new price contracts and restraints on prescribing by doctors, growth was likely to drop back in line with government targets.

In Germany, below average growth of a compound four per cent is expected to continue as restrictions on doctors' budgets restrain spending and patients are obliged to contribute more.

Both Britain and Spain are expected to see higher-than-average compound growth over the period of eight per cent and nine per cent respectively. Lowest growth in the major markets is seen in Japan, where government cost controls and price cuts are expected to continue to affect sales.

Cardiovascular drugs are expected to continue to be the largest therapeutic category, with market share decreasing slightly to 20.1 per cent in 2001 from 20.4 per cent in 1997.

Strongest growth is predicted for respiratory drugs, driven by the introduction of a new class of drug, leukotreine antagonists, for asthma and rhinitis.

However anti-infectives, which have seen a sustained period of high growth, are predicted to see a sharp slow down because of a lack of new products and in the face of a number of patent expiries.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.