CALCUTTA, May 7: Low prices of raw jute and unfavourable weather are likely to kill all chances of a repeat bumper jute crop.

Sources in the Jute Balers' Association (JBA), the raw jute traders organisation, said that though it is too early to predict, reports coming in from different parts of West Bengal and Assam show that conditions are not in favour of a bumper crop.

Apart from weather, the farmers are not showing interest in sowing because of low prices. In a span of 12 days, prices of TD-4 and TD-5, the two important varieties of raw jute, dropped by Rs 130. As the year ends, distress selling by farmers are being reported from all sections.

Moreover, farmers from Nadia have reported that flowers are blooming in the jute plants. This means that the young plants, with heights of about 10 to 12 inches, will not grow further.

In south Bengal, comprising Murshidabad, Nadia, North and South 24 Parganas, Hooghly, Howrah, Midnapore and Burdwan, `til' (a type of oilseed) has been reported to be cultivated in some jute growing areas.

The recent heat wave in West Bengal, Bihar and Assam has also affected the young crop of below six inches, which forms about 85 per cent to 90 per cent of the total crop sown.

JBA sources said "rain is needed within seven days otherwise the growth of these plants will be shunted."

The first report on the crop, covering up to April 30, 1997, from JBA said that the weather in Bihar, which provides about 14 lakh bales, is unfavourable both for sowings and healthy growth of the young plants. "Heavy showers are needed immediately," the report added.

A section of the raw jute traders feel that all these factors will play a major role and there will be a fall in yield of about 15 per cent to 20 per cent in south Bengal, which provides the maximum amount of jute of about 40 lakh bales. Overall yield will not be as high as 100 lakh bales.

Arun Kumar Seth, President of East India Jute and Hessian Exchange, told The Financial Express that though some people think that there will be a repeat bumper crop, chances of that are slim.

"It is too early to make any prediction because sudden change in the weather can prove all calculations wrong. Still I feel that this year jute crop will be around 80 to 85 lakh bales," he said.

Another section of traders, however, hopes that weather will favour and there will be a bumper yield, which will be supported by an expected carryover of 20 lakh bales.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.