Pakistan has recently received three P-3-C Orion maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) from the United States. This aircraft, though inducted into the US Navy in 1962, has undergone periodical upgradations keeping pace with emerging technology and ever changing tactics. Currently, P-3C update III is in service with USA, Japan, Germany, Australia, Netherlands, Norway, South Korea. The version supplied to Pakistan is stated to be update 11.5. What is significant is its ability to launch two Harpoon Anti-ship missiles and its 12-hrs endurance whilst on task.

The presence of Harpoon gives an offensive surface punch to an essentially submarine detection aircraft, engaged in ocean surveillance role. The stand-off weapon capability of Orion poses a grave threat to the Indian Warships and maritime fleet. The Indian Navy operates the Russian IL-38 and TU 142m in the submarine detection and ocean surveillance role. These aircraft do not have the stand off capability to take on surface fleets like the Orion. IN deploys Sea Harriers and Seakings with Sea-Eagle anti-ship missiles. These aircraft have their ranges limited and are dependent on fleet movements. Unless immediate action is taken by the policy makers at South Block, the naval maritime aircraft will be "tooth-less" in so far as stand-off abilities.

The solution calls for a joint venture, to acquire a "reliable" air to surface missile. Harpoon missile is a three dimensional design as it comes in three configurations to enable its launch from ship, aircraft and submarine. Pakistan has this capability. Further, the missile has been exploited widely and has reached a high level of reliability, which cannot be said of the other equivalent missiles of Western Origin. It's land attack version SLAM. (stand off - land attack missile) incorporating TV terminal guidance with + 110 km range, was successfully exploited in the Gulf War. The availability of `SLAM' technology to US allies in a couple of years cannot be ruled out. Even if this does not happen, the on-going joint missile ventures between Pakistan and China can easily accord the Harpoon with land attack capability. China has successfully developed C-802 anti-ship cruise missile.

Since land attack cruise missile technology is available, the Orion poses a serious threat to off shore and land targets along the Western Coast Line. While defence against ballistic missiles like Scud, Nodong, Prithvi etc is available with Patriot and Arrow systems, the same is not true in the case of cruise missiles. The sea-skimming ability (less than five meters) and land lugging ability (less than 20 meters) makes them difficult to defect and destroy. Thus, the advent of the Orion over the Indian Horizon needs to be examined in the right of its present abilities and future possibilities.Efforts need to be directed not only towards developing cruise missiles but also develop systems to defend against them. Any country capable of deploying anti cruise missile system would be able to defend against ballistic missiles. The reverse is not true. Today,Pakistan has acquired cruise missile technology for its maritime patrol aircraft. Where does that leave the Indian Navy? Do we follow suit? With Orion's arrival, the writing is on the horizon.

The author is a retired commodore of the Indian Navy.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.