LONDON, July 15: Asian oil imports will continue rising this year and again account for the largest element of trade growth in 1998, Clarksons Research Studies forecast on Tuesday.

Clarksons said Asian oil imports would increase by 61 per cent this year to 6.8 million barrels per day (bpd) - equating to an approximate extra 3.0 million dwt of vessel demand.

In its latest Oil and Tanker Trades Outlook, Clarksons also predicted that steady production levels and potential refinery capacity growth could push Asian imports up a further 500,000 bpd to around 7.3 mln bpd in 1998.The research arm of the London shipbroker said growth in Asian imports last year of 720,000 bpd accounted for almost 60 percent of the rise in worldwide trade.

However, Clarksons predicted global oil trade growth would slow to around 2 per cent next year to about 34 million barrels per day, from the 4 per cent rise recorded in 1996 and also forecast for 1997.

Despite this Clarksons said the demand/supply implications for tanker operators do not appear alarming.

"Overall the tonnage demand index is estimated to rise almost 3.0 million dwt. Simultaneously, only 1.2 mln dwt of fleet expansion is currently predicted."

The report added: "Estimated tonnage surplus is to contract further from a level of 24 mln dwt this year to 21 mln dwt in 1998."

However, Clarksons warned that OECD economies are expected to see trade growth slow down and their overall import increases are forecast at just 0.8 per cent next year.

Domestic crude production in the US, Refinery constraints and little anticipated stock growth are expected to reduce oil import growth from 4.3 per cent this year to 1.8 per cent in 1998.

European imports are likely to be held back by rising North Sea production, the report said.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.