MUMBAI, July 31: Finding friends is not difficult once you meet them halfway. Through years of protection, India petulantly criticised the Asean for not taking India on board.

In a crisis, it liberalised, and suddenly, almost unnoticed, it is one of the gang. Singapore is coordinating a gradual move to absorb India into the group that has gone beyond its original trade-facilitation mandate to become a strong regional economic grouping at par with the European Community and the North Atlantic Free Trade Area. For India, liberalisation has meant roughly approximating the direction in which the Asean nations have guided their policies.

A concrete promise has been made in the last budget of tariff reduction specifically to Asean levels. Two points need to be made about India's Asean entry. One, whatever be the formal status of membership, piecemeal liberalisation has already pushed Indo-Asean trade some distance. And two, the Asean grouping is bothered by its own Cassandras as far as admitting India is concerned.

To take the first issue first, Indo-Asean trade has already progressed significantly. Soon, India will welcome top Asean dignitaries including Singapore premier Goh Chok Thong on purely business-related visits. At $9 billion, the Asean already accounts for six per cent of Indian trade. Trade with Singapore has crossed $4 billion. Last year, Indonesian and Malaysian trade with India rose by 30 per cent each. Cumulative project approvals for Asean investments in India stand at $1.8 billion, and $5.8 billion worth of projects are awaiting approval.

But it may be a mistake to treat an Asean welcome as uniform. An economically isolated and weak India is nobody's terror. But a strong Indian industrial sector, capable of serving the enormous Indian population, would also be perfectly capable of serving the Asean market competitively, and therefore market shares may be threatened in case India's membership and the ongoing reform process yields results. China has been a bogey of the Asean due to the fact that in recent years its growing exports have begun to replace, at least partially, the greatest and according to some, only strength of the Asean economies: their exports. Singapore is stronger than India, so, possibly is Malaysia. But in a scenario of a successful Indian transition, Indonesia, Myanmar, Laos could all well be threatened. There are challenges unresolved yet in Indian entry into Asean.

Copyright © 1997 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.