NEW DELHI, Aug 17: The union agriculture ministry has estimated that the demand for nitrogen nutrient in the country will rise to 178.82 lakh tonnes by 2001-02 as price correction in urea was not resorted to in time.

If the price correction was resorted to then the demand for nitrogen nutrient would have been contained at 134 lakh tonnes by 2001-02.

Comparatively, the panel of the union ministry for chemicals and fertilisers has worked out that the domestic production of nitrogen nutrient could at best be pegged at 140.27 lakh tonnes only by 2001-02. In working out the estimate, the fertiliser ministry panel has taken into consideration all the operating plants, revamp of HFC and FCI, plants which are expected to be commissioned in the Ninth Plan period and consumption of nitrogen nutrients through DAP and other complexes.

A document paper of the farm ministry panel had earlier suggested a hike of 30 in urea price in the terminal year of the Eighth Plan followed by 10 per cent per annum hike in urea prices from the second year to the terminal year of the Ninth Plan.

The agriculture ministry document also stated that distortion in nutrient consumption will also take place in case of phosphate. Without price correction in urea, the demand for phosphate will rise to 46.70 lakh tonnes by 2001-02. However, with price correction in urea, the demand for phosphate nutrient could have been contained at 41.90 lakh tonnes.

The union chemicals and fertiliser ministry has estimated that the production of phosphate nutrient in the country would be 33.33 lakh tonnes by 2001-02. The ministry, while working out its estimate, has taken into consideration all the operating plants and the estimated production from Kribhco's Hazaria plant, Iffco's Kandla expansion project, ZACL's pipe- reactor project, FACT's pipe-reactor project at CD, PPL project, CFCL's NPK project and Indo-Gulf's DAP project.

The farm ministry document also noted similar distortion in consumption of potash nutrient. It stated that had the price correction in urea was resorted to in time, the demand for potash nutrient would rise to 18.30 lakh tonnes by 2001-02, otherwise the demand for the nutrient would be contained at 16.04 lakh tonnes in the same period.

The projections of the agriculture ministry are based on the area, crop coverage approach indicating the contribution of additional gross cropped area, irrigated area and production-oriented programmes for additional food output. It has estimated that the foodgrain requirement would be 220 million tonnes by 2001-02. The food crops consume 70 per cent of total fertiliser consumption. It has also taken into account additional 5 per cent growth in consumption of fertiliser for partially compensating the nutrient removal by crops.

The Fertiliser Association of India (FAI) has projected demand for nitrogen nutrient at 124.42 lakh tonnes, phosphate nutrient at 37.65 lakh tonnes and potash nutrient at 18.24 lakh tonnes by 2001-02. FAI estimates are based on multiple regression model in which the variables like irrigated area, area under high-yielding varieties and fertiliser prices and consumption over the past 24 years. It has assumed that there would be no change in per unit price of nitrogen whereas the price of phosphate would increase to Rs 23.01 per kg and that of potash to 9.25 per kg in 2001-02.The National Information Centre (NIC) has projected demand for nitrogen nutrient at 163.23 lakh tonnes, phosphate nutrient at 47.90 lakh tonnes and potash nutrient at 22.82 lakh tonnes by 2001-02.

NIC estimates are based on auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The time series data on month-wise fertiliser consumption from 1983-84 is used as basic inputs.

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