NEW DELHI, February 6: The gross domestic product growth rate for 1996-97 has been revised upwards to 7.5 per cent as against the advance estimates of 6.8 per cent for the year and 7.2 per cent for the previous year. According to the quick estimates of national income, consumption expenditure, saving and capital formation for 1996-97, released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) on Friday, the gross domestic savings (GDS) increased to 26.1 per cent during 1996-97 as compared to 25.3 per cent in the previous fiscal.The per capita income in real terms also increased by 5.9 per cent and the rate of gross capital formation at constant prices inched up 27.3 per cent to 27.5 per cent during 1996-97.
The quick estimates revealed that GDP at factor-cost at constant (198-81) prices in 1996-97 had been estimated at Rs 2,96,845 crore as against Rs 2,76,132 crore in 1995-96, registering a growth of 7.5 per cent compared to 7.2 per cent in the previous fiscal.
The growth in the GDP, the estimates pointedout, was mainly due to high growth in agriculture, which grew by 8.2 per cent as against a fall of 3.4 per cent in the previous fiscal. Interestingly, the growth rate in the manufacturing sector decelerated sharply to 7.4 per cent as against 14.0 per cent in the previous financial year.
The deceleration in growth rate was also witnessed in the case of construction, trade, hotels and restaurants, finance and insurance. The mining and quarrying sector registered a marginal negative growth of 0.3 per cent as compared to an increase of 8.4 per cent in the previous financial year. At current prices, GDP in 1996-97 has been estimated at Rs 11,49,215 crore as against Rs 10,06,286 crore in 1995-96 showing an increase of 14.2 per cent during the year.
At constant prices, the national income in 1996-97 has been estimated at Rs 2,58,465 crore as against Rs 2,39,957 crore in 1995-96 showing a rise of 7.7 per cent during the year. At current prices, the national income in 1996-97 is estimated at Rs 10,08,188 crore ascompared to Rs 8,81,216 crore in 1995-96, showing a rise of 14.4 per cent during the year.
The agricultural production during 1996-97 has registered a growth rate of about 6 per cent, mainly attributable to the steep increase in the production of wheat (10 per cent), coarse cereals (16 per cent), pulses (10 per cent), oilseeds (12 per cent) and cotton (9 per cent).
The per capital income in real terms is estimated at Rs 2,761 for 1996-97 as against Rs 2,608 for 1995-96, registering an increase of 5.9 per cent. The per capital income at current prices is estimated at Rs 10,771 in 1996-97 as against Rs 9,578 for the previous year.
The GDS at current prices, according to the estimates, amounted to Rs 3,33,816 crore as against Rs 2,83,003 crore in 1995-96, constituting 26.1 per cent of GDP at market prices as compared to 25.3 per cent in the previous year. However, there has been a marginal fall in the saving of the public sector. In respect of household sector, the financial savings as well as savings inphysical assets went up in 1996-97 from Rs 95,715 crore to Rs 1,36,644 crore and from Rs 1,14,702 crore to Rs 1,22,899 crore, respectively.
Insight -- A record under reform
The revision takes the gross domestic product growth rate to a new peak under reform. The counterpart of the good news is that it will make the expected decline in the GDP growth rate for 1997-98 appear rather sharp. The high agricultural growth rate of 1996-97 raised the base; any improvement in agricultural output this year will seem small.
There will be disappointment over the decline in the growth of manufacturing in 1996-97. Actually, the decline was more in the unregistered sector. The growth performance of the registered sector was respectable. But 1997-98 is likely to see a higher growth in the unregistered than in the registered sector.
Besides agriculture, GDP growth got a big push from trade and hotels, transport, storage and communications, but not from construction whichactually slowed down along with finance, real estate, insurance and business services.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
