MUMBAI, February 8: The biggest single-day market movement of 1997-98 went unnoticed and unreported on December 29. On that day, Sonia Gandhi announced her decision to campaign for the Congress party and the odds changed for hundreds of crores of bets in the massive illegal betting market of India.The 1:3 odds offered on the chance of the BJP forming the next government at the centre plummeted to 1:2 after the announcement.In practical terms, an odds of 1:3 mean that if you bet Rs 3 on a future BJP government, and if it materialises, you win Re 1. But after December 29, the odds changed to 1:2, meaning that you get Re 1 for every Rs 2 you bet on the BJP.
Put simply, this means that betting on the BJP is a longer shot now than before December 29. With Sonia Gandhi's entry the risk weightage is less favourable for BJP.
The above description of the working of the betting market is rather simplistic. It is driven by heavy volumes based on squaring off and jobbing between various centres across the countryand some overseas centers. The major betting centres are Jaipur in Rajasthan, Indore in Madhya Pradesh, Baroda in Gujarat, Dubai in the Middle East and the three metros -- Delhi, Calcutta and Mumbai -- with the last being the major centre. The bookies are the same as the ones who lead the betting in cricket. The whole trade is based on established trust over the years. Positions are taken in one city and squared off by entering into reverse bets in another city.
The bookies offer various permutations and combinations of betting options. Want to be bet on the chances of the BJP getting 200 seats. The odds offered are 3.25/3.50:1. Meaning for every Re 1 you bet on the BJP getting 200 seats, you get Rs 3.25-Rs 3.50. Earlier, before Sonia's entry, you would have earned only 50-60 paise.
The other current betting rates are 1:3 on the BJP winning 150 seats; that is you get 30-40 paise if the BJP does get 150 seats. You win 50-60 paise for every rupee you bet on the BJP getting 175 seats and a whopping Rs 5-6for 250 seats.
Similiarly, for the Congress, the bets are at 45-50 paise for 125 seats, Rs 1.75 for 150 seats and Rs 3.50-3.75 for 175 seats for every rupee invested. Clearly, the betting market does not set great store by the BJP winning 250 seats.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
