CALCUTTA, Feb 8: Will Mamata Banerjee, the maverick youth leader from West Bengal, be able to do a hat trick by winning the South Calcutta constituency this time? Mamata's followers say "yes", while many others have doubts. Mainly because she broke away from the Congress to form Trinamool Congress, which will split the Congress vote bank. Moreover, this time she is fighting two political heavyweights -- veteran Marxist leader Prasanta Sur and her one-time ally in Congress factional politics Saugata Roy.
In the 1996 parliamentary elections, Mamata virtually had a cakewalk as she defeated her nearest rival Bharati Mukherjee of the CPI(M) by a margin of over one lakh votes. Mamata bagged 4,38,252 votes, while Mukherjee got 3,34,991 votes. Not only that but also she enjoyed substantial leads in all the seven assembly segments -- ranging from a margin of 3,500 in Sonarpur to 25,000 in Alipore. It was significant because out of them three constituencies -- Sonarpur, Dhakuria and Ballygunje -- were held byCPI(M) members in the state assembly, while the remaining four -- Alipore, Chowringhee, Rashbehari and Tollygunje were in the hands of the Congress.
If Mamata is known for her militancy, Prasanta Sur, a former mayor of Calcutta and former state minister, is known for his constructive activities. It was in his initiative that a number of development projects had been initiated/implemented in Calcutta and in other parts of the state.
CPI(M) had a tough time during the last elections in introducing Bharati Mukherjee, then a new entrant in politics, to the voters and the party's numbers dropped in 1996. "This time we have no problem," said Prasanta Sur. "I am well known to the people of the state and of the constituency," he added.
Saugata Roy, who was a minister in the Charan Singh government, is now an MLA from Alipore constituency.Trinamool Congress chairman Pankaj Banerjee, who is also an MLA from Tollygunje, claims that there is a similar swing as in 1996 this time in favour of Mamata. She may win theseat by an even greater margin from this predominantly middle-class constituency with only Sonarpur being an agrarian one. "The BJP's 45,066 votes at the last elections will go to her. Moreover, the apparent support that the BJP is getting this time from the middle-class throughout the country will also help her," he argued.
But many in the CPI(M) and the Congress believe that in the context of the humiliation that the state BJP leadership suffered in the hands of Trinamool Congress over seat adjustment, they may be reluctant to work whole-heartedly for Mamata.
During his election campaign in West Bengal, the BJP president L K Advani, however, tried to dispel such doubts by urging his party's supporters to vote for Trinamool candidates in the state.
On the other hand, Pankaj Banerjee said, a majority of the Congress supporters, who are essentially anti-CPI(M), will vote for Mamata, and not for Saugata, as Mamata is known for her consistent fight against the ruling Left Front, which is in power in thestate for 21 years. The Congress supporters will not like to see their party supporting CPI(M) at the Centre again, as indicated by CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechuri, in case of a hung parliament. "I will be glad if he (Saugata) saves his deposit," he said.
Political observers in the state, however, admit that Sonia Gandhi's visit to West Bengal and to Calcutta, where she addressed the largest political rally organised here by any party or group in recent times, has helped in rejuvenating the demoralised party workers and they are gradually rallying behind their candidates.
A Congress worker from Mamata's constituency and the secretary of a ward committee told The Financial Express, "we still love her and the day she chooses to come back we will work for her. But as long as she is not under the Pradesh Congress banner we cannot support her in anyway."
Calcuttans who are originally from the western part of united Bengal and the suvarnabaniks (a caste traditionally engaged in gold business) had alwaysbeen staunch supporters of the Congress and it is believed that this time too they will vote for the party.
The CPI(M) is banking on the split in the Congress vote bank in the South Calcutta constituency. As Sailen Dasgupta, secretary of the West Bengal CPI(M) and a politburo member of the party, puts it this way: "The Congress supporters normally vote for the Congress symbol" and West Bengal's chief minister Jyoti Basu has admitted that "Sonia's entry in politics will provide an edge to the Congress."
There are about one and a half lakh Muslim voters in the constituency. "This time too, they will vote for her," Mamata's supporters claim. The Congress and the CPI(M), on other hand, believes that she has alienated the Muslims the day she joined hands with the BJP. Raza Mama, a Seva Dal joint chairman from Free School Street, said "when she came to our locality we laid flowers all over the lane for her to walk on. But now she has tied up with the BJP. We cannot support her now."
If Mamata has reallyalienated the Muslims, then who will the Muslims vote for? Both the CPI(M) and the Congress claim, "for us."
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
