The Rubber Board has projected a considerable widening of the demand-supply gap in natural rubber during the Ninth Plan period. This may help rubber prices firm up significantly in the long run, it feels. The Board has also firmed up plans to bring in an additional 40,000 hectares under rubber cultivation during the period.According to estimates for natural rubber made for the Ninth Plan by the Board, the production of rubber will increase at an average annual rate of 1.97 per cent to 730,000 tonnes from 579,000 tonnes during the period. On the other hand, consumption is estimated to grow at a rate of 2.1 per cent to 790,000 tonnes from 615,000 tonnes during the period. The gap of nearly 600,000 tonnes needs to be bridged either by imports or by increasing production.
For enhancing production, the Board has firmed up certain schemes, including expansion of area under rubber cultivation, replanting of old and low-yielding rubber trees with high-yielding ones and increasing the productivity of existingyielding areas through the adoption of improved technology.
According to the Board, the scope for expanding the area under rubber cultivation in the traditional areas of Kerala and Kanyakumari is limited. This is because the planting of new areas by the estate sector has come to a virtual halt. However, the small growers, accounting for nearly 85 per cent of the area and production, are bringing in additional areas under rubber cultivation. But this trend may not continue considering the present trends in rubber prices.
Therefore, according to the Board, the scope of increasing rubber production hinges mainly on expanding cultivation into non-traditional areas.
According to the Board's plan, an additional 15,000 hectares in Kerala and Kanyakumari will be brought under rubber cultivation during the Ninth Plan period. The remaining 25,000 hectares will be distributed in various non-traditional areas.
Besides, the Board has also embarked on a ambitious task of replanting another 40,000 hectares spreadacross the country under high-yielding varieties.
To achieve the planting targets, the Board has firmed up a four-pronged strategy, including enhancement of financial incentives and development of infrastructure for the growers. The Board has earmarked Rs 116.75 crore for achieving the planting targets. Sources said that in spite of the recent fall in the prices, these targets could be achieved.
However, dealers here feel the Board's strategy will dampen rubber prices, which have already been in the dumps, further. They said a major reason for the current plight of the rubber plantation industry was the Board's strategy of enhancing production with huge incentives while not taking care of the demand side.
They said the figures provided by the Board itself contradicted the projections in the plan document. According to the Board's quick estimates, there has been an excess supply to the tune of 46,000 tonnes in the last fiscal. This is a major reason for the current plunge in rubber prices.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
