Delayed rains, which led to lower offtake of fertilisers, and a somewhat lackadaisical attitude on the part of the government, have had an impact on agricultural yield in states like Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh. In 1996-97, the country's total food grain harvest stood at 192 million tonnes. Going by this year's rainfall, which was favourably copious, a target of 200 million tonnes of agriculture produce could have been achieved. The target was around 105 million tonne of kharif foodgrains and 94 million tonnes of rabi foodgrains.
Due to delayed rains and the subsequent delayed sowing, however, the industry fears that the final figure at the end of April-May 1998 could be lower at around 184-185 million tonnes. The expectation was that the overall agricultural production would rise by a marginal 0.5 per cent in 1997-98, compared to 5.8 per cent growth in the previous year.
Industry experts feel that while the standing kharif crop wasaffected due to delayed rains, the impact is expected to be a 10-20 per cent reduction in the produce by the end of the rabi season.
Crops that have been affected are mostly cash crops like jowar, cotton, paddy, oilseeds and soya, as also pulses and moong. Wheat was, however, not affected. The output of wheat is expected to be the same as last year, i.e. around 68 million tonnes.
In the rabi season, sowing has been enormously delayed in some parts of the country like eastern Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Madhya Pradesh. This, coupled with the delayed fixation of price for fertilisers, has led to a quandary.Thus the yield of rabi crops like mustard, pea, gram and sunflower is expected to be lower at the end of the season. Farmers are shifting most of their crops into summer crops as enough moisture would have been retained in the soil after the delayed winter rain, said analysts.
Fertiliser consumption during October to December has been affected. Sale of urea, otherwise a popular fertiliser, isexpected to be lower by 15-20 per cent, analysts said. Offtake of phosphatic and potassic fertilisers has also been lower than normal. This has also led to a vast pile-up of fertiliser stocks.
Industry experts said that the total consumption of NPK (nitrogen, phosphate, potash) is likely to be lower by 0.8 to 1 million tonnes at the end of the rabi season this year.
Going by last year's consumption of 13-14 million tonnes of NPK in 1996-97, this year's target of over 14 million tonnes could have easily been achieved had it not been for the uncertainties, analysts feel.
The industry expects a 25 per cent reduction in the total offtake of NPK.
According to a paper presented by Crisil recently, production of foodgrains will have to increase to over 202 million tonnes by the millennium, given the twin compulsions of population growth (around 2 per cent per annum) and the need to increase per capita food consumption.
With limited scope for increasing acreage under cultivation, the focus will have to beon increasing yields for which use of fertilisers will be critical, the Crisil paper went on to say.
Fertilisers provide almost all the essential plant nutrients needed for increasing agricultural production and in particular, production of foodgrains.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
