Bhopal, Feb 19: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to have a definite edge in Madhya Pradesh, Sonia Gandhi factor notwithstanding. The people of the state are keen on seeing `son of the soil' Atal Behari Vajpayee as prime minister. The Coimbatore blast and the Multai firing have only added to BJP's upswing.However, a tacit understanding between the Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party could emerge as a deterrant to BJP's growth.
The undercurrent of BJP is felt everywhere. As one enters the districts of Rewa and Satna, bordering Uttar Pradesh, the upper hand of the BJP is felt. Satna, which had gone to BSP last time, may choose BJP's Ramanand Singh, a Kurmi, an important segment to ensure victory in this area. But Rewe may be retained by Budhsen Patel of the BSP.
The Congress foot-hold in the state seems to be loosening. Chhattishgarh, known for its Shuklas -- VC and SC--also is seen slipping away. Motilal Vora in Rajnandgaon and V C Shukla are fighting a tough battle to retain their supremacy.Their challenger is none but the BJP. In Chhindwara, Kamal Nath should be happy if he regains the seat by a razor thin majority against the virtually invincible BJP's Sunder Lal Patwa.
Arjun Singh has held the arms of Kanshi Ram's BSP to swim through the strong tide of BJP in Hoshangabad. Even in the northern corner of the state Bhind, Morena, Guna, Indore, Bhopal, Vidisha and Rajarh, it is none but the BJP.
Former chief ministers Patwa and Kailash Joshi, contesting from Rajgarh against Digvijay Singh's brother, say that they were sure to add to the 1996 tally of 27. Tanveer Ahmed says we will repeat 1977 by winning all the 40 seats.
However, MP Congress spokesman Manak Agarwal is too euphoric with Sonia Gandhi's arrival. He said ``wait till the results''. He refused to hazard a guess. His claim was that the results will be surprising.
Interestingly BSP's growing influence in the state is not being glossed over either by the BJP or the Congress.
The Janata Dal is still kicking in the state. Thoughit is not easy for it to win a seat, it can cause eat into the vote bank of the Congress.
In Jabalpur, its candidate Bachhan Naik has such a clean image that he is certain to have a sizeable anti-BJP vote than the Congress Ashok Chansoriya, said to be a mafia leader.
The BSP candidate is there everywhere, even just for the heck of it. It has not put up any against Arjun Singh and only a dummy against Kamal Nath. In many other seats, the local BSP leaders are seeking to align with the Congress.
At some places, it is said, the BSP is prepared to transfer its votes to the Congress ``for a price''. Some BSP leaders in Bhopal and Gwalior did not deny that they had some soft corner for Arjun Singh and a few others. They did not agree that it was a state-level understanding. ``We are prepared to support the Congress, where we are not so strong, to teach the haughty BJP a lesson.''
Another BSP leader said, ``Atalji's dream to become the prime minister will remain a dream. Kanshi Ram has told us to stem thegrowth of the BJP so that the BSP can have its say in the national scenario''. The near absence of the third force -- JD or Samajwadi Party -- seems to have given the BSP a free hand for the trade off with the Congress.
That the Congress is also aware of the growing BJP power is evident from its below-the-belt style of hitting. At Rajgarh, where Lakshman Singh, chief minister Digvijay Singh's brother is contesting, against BJP's Kailash Joshi -- two more of his namesake, said to be dummies of the Congress, are there. One of them has been allotted the symbol shuttle cock, which resembles the lotus. In 1996 too, one with a shuttle cock symbol polled 13,000 votes, much more than the Congress candidates.
The Congress is blatantly misusing the official machinery -- be it for removal of BJP posters and flags or for direct or indirect campaigning for it. BJP general secretary Meghraj Jain says, ``it only exposed the level of Congress confidence''.
BJP's Jabalpur candidate Dada Baburao Paranjpe said that theelections would come out with many surprises.
``I would be least surprised if the Congress is totally routed.'' As per his assessment, the two forces that would remain in the state in the post-poll scenario are the BJP and BSP with a sprinkling of Congress here and there.
BJP has not left anything to chance. All its front and shadow organisations are working hard against a divided Congress. It may not be a surprise to see the BJP getting 30-plus seats. But if the BSP okays the dark horse, it can falsify all predictions.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
