New Delhi, Feb 23: The economic slowdown has now been officially confirmed to be worse than anticipated earlier. The latest "advance" estimates put out by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) put the GDP growth figure at just five per cent for 1997-98, well below even the six per cent forecast by the RBI last December.The slowdown is mainly on account of the expected decline in agriculture, forestry and fishing and the deceleration being witnessed in several other sectors of the industry. With this reduction in the growth forecast, the current fiscal -- the year of the "dream" budget -- will register the lowest growth in the last five years.
According to the CSO's estimates, GDP at factor cost at constant (1980-81) prices is likely to attain a level of Rs 3,11,828 crore in 1997-98 as compared to quick estimates of Rs 2,96,845 crore for the previous fiscal. The biggest disappointment, according to the estimates, will be in the agriculture, forestry and fishing sector. This segment is estimated torecord a negative growth rate of 2 per cent as compared to a high growth rate of 7.9 per cent in the previous financial year.
Manufacturing is also likely to fare poorly. The growth rate in this sector is expected to decelerate to 6.1 per cent from 7.4 per cent in the previous financial year. A deceleration will also be witnessed in the construction sector. The sector which was likely to do well was mining and quarrying. Having recorded a negative growth of (-) 0.3 per cent, the growth rate was likely to go up to 6.3 per cent.
Similarly, in the case of financing, insurance, real estate and business services, the growth rate was likely to accelerate to 9.5 per cent as compared to 8.7 per cent in the previous fiscal. Community, social and personal services is expected to record a high growth rate of 13.8 per cent as compared to 6.4 per cent in 1996-97.
According to the advance estimates, per capita income in real terms was likely to register a growth rate of 3.1 per cent during the current fiscal ascompared to 5.9 per cent in the last year. This has been estimated at Rs 2,847 as compared to the quick estimate of Rs 2,761 for 1996-97.
Similar deceleration was also likely to be witnessed in the case of gross national product and net national product with the growth rate estimated to slide to 5.2 per cent and 4.9 per cent as compared to 7.7 per cent and 7.7 per cent respectively, in the last financial year.
The growth rate for net domestic product was also expected to decelerate to 4.7 per cent from 7.5 per cent in 1996-97.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
