One of the foremost tasks before the new government would be to announce a bonus over the minimum support price (MSP) for the procurement of wheat. The announcement of bonus, the quantum of which has assumed significance because of the expected poor rabi output, has to be made before April 1, 1998-the date on which the procurement of wheat will officially begin.The government, it may be recalled, has already announced an MSP of Rs 455 per quintal for wheat. However, this is lower than what the farmers got in the earlier season-Rs 475 per quintal, including Rs 60 as bonus.
Apart from wheat, the government in November announced an MSP for barley, increasing it to Rs 350 from Rs 305 per quintal. The MSP for gram went up to Rs 815 from Rs 740 per quintal, for rapeseed and mustard to Rs 940 from Rs 890 per quintal and for safflower to Rs 910 from Rs 830 per quintal.
The key to successful wheat procurement would be the bonus, which has to be significantly high because of expectations of a poor wheat crop.According to sources in the agriculture ministry, because of the irregular monsoon, the crop had to be resown and farmers had gone in for early maturity varieties. However, the yields in these categories are low and would adversely affect the crop size. And hence, sufficient incentives would have to be given to farmers to part with the crop.
While the procurement agencies have started gearing up by refurbishing the godowns for storing wheat, experts refuse to hazard a guess on the expected crop size of wheat. They do admit that it would definitely be less than the record performance witnessed in the last season. Wheat output was of the order of 68.71 million tonnes in the last season and procurement worked out to be around 9.5 million tonnes.
The other problem during the current rabi season, it is pointed out, is the reduction in acreage for wheat cultivation. According to estimates, the area under wheat has gone down to 24.96 million hectares as compared to 25.55 million hectares previously, showing adecline of 2.3 per cent. The decline has been largely reported from Bihar, which along with Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana, accounts for a substantial portion of wheat output. In Uttar Pradesh, however, earlier gloomy predictions appear to have replaced with cautious optimism, thanks to the cool climate in recent weeks. If this continues, wheat's total tally could improve.
At the macro level, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) has taken note of the possible decline in agriculture during the current financial year. The CSO, in its advance estimates, has predicted a two per cent fall in agriculture, forestry and fishing as against a rise of 7.9 per cent in the previous financial year The poor performance in agriculture is also likely to adversely affect economic growth, which is expected to slide to 5 per cent from 7.5 per cent in 1996-97. The last financial year, it has been emphasised, was an exceptionally good year for agriculture, recording the highest ever foodgrains production of 199 milliontonnes.
Barring wheat, the other rabi crops are likely to gain with acreage marginally going up. According to estimates, acreage under coarse cereals is nearly the same as in the last year. Although barley acreage has shrunk, the total area under minor rabi coarse grains was up from 7.01 million hectares to 7.23 million hectares. As far as oilseeds are concerned, the rapeseed and mustard acreage has gone up to 6.94 million hectares from 6.54 million hectares. Sunflower too is likely to cover wider acreage. The total acreage of oilseeds has been assessed at 12.82 million hectares, up from 12.55 million hectares. Gram will occupy 7.24 million hectares as against 7.07 million hectares last year.
According to officials in the agriculture ministry, the crop size will, to a large extent, continue to depend on the monsoon, but what is more important is to devise crop production strategies to achieve an accelerated growth in productivity levels on a sustained level. The focus of attention in the Ninth Plan, itis pointed out, should be on increase in production and productivity of crops with a view to achieving a rate if growth of 4-5 per cent in the agriculture sector and reduce the unit cost of production. The officials also stressed that an annual growth of 3-3.5 per cent in foodgrains would be absolutely essential to achieve an overall rate of growth of 4.5 per cent in the agricultural sector.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
