Indonesia coffee consumption downIndonesia's coffee consumption fell between 30 and 35 per cent since last July because of the currency crisis, trade sources said last Monday.
"Local coffee consumption has fallen between 30 and 35 per cent since July last year because of the currency crisis. Local people's main concern is now on rice as drinking coffee has become expensive," said one source.
Coffee traders said earlier that the tumbling rupiah was good for exports but it also triggered a rise in local prices of instant coffee. Indonesia's currency crisis started to shake the country last July.
"Coffee beans have become expensive because of the currency movement and this led to a decline in local consumption," said the source.
Traders said prices of grade four beans were stable at 13,000-14,000 rupiah/kg in Lampung.
Indian coffee prices rule firm
An anticipated fall inthe Indian coffee output in the 1997/98 (October-September) season had pushed up its prices, which are expected toremain firm until mid-1998, industry officials said last Monday.
"There is a shortage of Arabica coffee due to lower harvest which has led to a rally in coffee prices week after week," said Mohammed Kasim, a leading coffee dealer in the southern town of Coonoor. The state-run Coffee Board has estimated an Arabica coffee output of 104,205 tonnes this season compared with 90,450 tonnes last year. Arabica accounts for nearly 44 per cent of the total coffee output. The board has projected a total coffee output of 237,215 tonnes in 1997/98.
Industry officials said growers were holding back stocks to sell later after prices rose further. Brokers said the high coffee prices had affected demand. Auctioneers said 95 percent of the coffee offered forauctions in the past week by the Indian Coffee Trade Association in the southern city of Bangalore was withdrawn because of low demand.
El Nino blamed for low coffee output
Vietnam has revised its estimates for its 1997-98 coffee crop downward, Doan TrieuNhan, chairman of Vietnam's Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) told Dow Jones Newswires last Wednesday.
The revision comes following a reassessment of the effects of a drought which was originally believed to have hit neighboring coffee producing countries while leaving Vietnam unscathed.
Vietnam's October 1997 to September 1998 coffee crop is now expected to weigh in at around 350,000 metric tons, Nhan said. This compares with government projections released earlier this year of 380,000 tons. `There's not enough rain and the reservoirs are too empty,' Nhan said, adding, `It's El Nino's fault.'
Brazil coffee output seen rising
German trader Bernhard Rothfos GmbH said Brazil's 1998/99 coffee crop could reach over 35 million bags, up sharply from its estimate of 24.5 million in 1997/98.
Rothfos based its expectation partly on ideal crop weather conditions. It added that the recent high bean prices also motivated coffee farmers to reap maximum yield from newly planted crops.
Rothfos'forecast compares with the Brazilian government official estimate of 31.17 million bags for the 1998/99 crop. Last week, leading Brazilian exporter Unicafe put the new crop at 35.2 million, up from 21.60 million in 1997/98. Early estimates for the 1998/99 harvest have ranged from between 30 million to over 40 million.
Asian coffee sees European inquiries
Asian coffee dealers said last Monday that they are seeing more inquiries from buyers in Europe, but demand in Asian remains flat.
"There are more and more inquiries. Business from Europe is very brisk. But demand from Asia is very slow because of the crisis," one coffee dealer said.
Another dealer said some buyers were holding back to wait for the London robusta futures market to open later. Vietnamese exporters are also hoarding supplies on expectations of further price rises.
"The Vietnamese are very stubborn. They don't want to drop their prices because they think it will head higher," he said.
Demand for coffee in Asian countries likeJapan and South Korea, however, has softened considerably as a result of the economic crisis which has hit the region.
Companies were trying to gauge what kind of demand they're going to see for coffee products for the rest of 1998, he added.
Tea output may improve further
India's tea production this year is projected to be a record 840 million kg but the plantation industry is sceptical of the industry's outlook for the year.
"We (India) are likely to produce 840 million kg tea in 1998 against 809 million in 1997," a commerce ministry official said.
However, the industry fears that production might be lower, ranging from being less than last year's output at 795 million kg to 820 million kg. No reason has been ascribed to it.
The breakup of production in north-east and south India has not been made, but indications are that in the south, the output could be around last year's level of 205 million kg.
The plantation industry itself is divided over the actual production level.
A surveyby the united planters association of south india (upasi) among the planters indicated that south india's production could be around last year's level.
Filipino coconut farmers' woes
Philippine coconut farmers vowed to go to court to get back some 100 billion pesos in assets they said were bought with funds collected from the sale of their copra.
"We have to get them (assets from the coconut levy) by hook or by crook," Gorgonio Unde, president of the National Federation of Small Coconut Farmers Organisations told a forum on the issue. Among the assets is 47 per cent of food and beverage giant San Miguel Corp, which farmers claimed were bought using funds from the coconut levy by the business associates of late dictator Ferdinand Marcos.
"We are preparing a class suit, with the coconut farmers themselves claiming ownership over the coconut levy and assets bought from it," Efren Villasenor, president of the National Coalition of Coconut Farmers and Workers' Organisations said. Philippine CoconutAuthority chief Virgilio David said the farmers are getting impatient over the slow process in recovering the coconut levy funds.
Singapore rubber futures down
Singapore rubber futures closed weaker last Friday in slow trade and traders said major buyers were waiting for prices to dip further before their next purchase.
"Most players have covered their nearby positions so we may not see too much activity in the coming days," a trader said.
Nearby supplies remained ample, traders said.
Another trader said major buyers like Japanese giant Bridgestone, Michelin and Goodyear were still absent in the market.
"They are waiting for prices to come down further," the trader said. "They are still squaring positions instead of buying," he added.
Volume traded in the market was modest with the January/March TSR20 contract said to be the most active.
Nigerian December cocoa exports up
Cocoa bean exports from Nigeria totalled 36,619 tonnes in December 1997 against 33,693 tonnes a yearearlier, official data from the Federal Produce Inspection Service showed last Monday.
Traders and farmers said the rise was due to longer than expected rains which delayed the start of Nigeria's main 1997/98 (October-September) cocoa crop season, with more stocks moved in December.
The latest figures bring the cumulative October-December exports for the season to 73,986 tonnes against 87,790 tonnes a year before.
Traders and farmers expect total bean exports for the 97/98 year to be less than those for 1996/97, which totalled 141,905 tonnes.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
