March 1: The sudden cooling of the weather and light showers in the northern region over the past couple of days is just what the agricultural expert prescribed for a good wheat crop in Uttar Pradesh this year. The state's agriculture department had begun despairing over the onset of a rather early summer with temperatures soaring well past normal levels last week. They had, therefore, started predicting a bad wheat harvest, which they maintained would fall far short of the year's target of 25.5 million tonnes.The gods have, however, decided to be kind to the state this time around and the return of cooler days will, according to experts, help offset the losses suffered by farmers in November and December last year on account of untimely rains, inclement weather and severe cold wave conditions. In fact, from the kharif crop-cutting experiments, which are currently being undertaken in various parts of the state, it appears as if the production of wheat will be around the same level as last year, that is, invicinity of 24.5 million tonnes or more.
What has also helped the wheat crop this time is the fact that there has been a substantial increase in the area under wheat. From the normal 90 lakh hectares utilised for cultivation of the crop every year, this year over 92 lakh hectares have been utilised. This, experts says, is partly on account of the fact that farmers in the state were reluctant to sow potatoes, given the fact that there was a problem of plenty last year. A bumper crop of potatoes and inadequate cold storages in the state led to distress sales of the crop and, in some cases, even rotting.
Having burnt their fingers thus, farmers this year have preferred to utilise their land for sowing wheat instead. But the more important reason why there has been a switch to wheat this year is the large scale destruction of both paddy and potato crops in November and December. "In an attempt to recoup their losses to some extent, farmers have utilised their land to cultivate late-sowing varieties of wheatinstead," said a senior official of the state's agricultural department.
Apart from the additional land being utilised for the cultivation of wheat, another reason which has contributed significantly to expectations of a good wheat harvest this year is the fact that almost 50 per cent of the total land available for the crop was sown on time. According to agricultural experts, early sowing of wheat is recommended for the rabi season since the November and December temperatures are ideal for the crop.
"While a large number of farmers normally push this sowing deadline to January, this year, thankfully, over 46 lakh hectares had already been sown with the early-sown varieties of wheat. In this case, far from damaging the crops, the rains in November and December proved a blessing and the crop is expected to be better than preceding years," disclosed an expert.
In cases where the wheat was sown later, there was large scale damage to the crop; but this has been replaced with late-sown varieties of wheat.For this crop, an early heralding of summer would have proved disastrous. Now, with the return of cooler climes, the agricultural department is keeping its fingers crossed and hoping that the cool weather holds.
"As always, March will be a crucial, decisive month, specially for the late-sown wheat crop and we are hoping that the productivity will not fall below the normal average yield of 26 quintals/hectare," said an official of the agriculture department.
That being the scenario, and considering that Uttar Pradesh produces around 33 per cent of the total wheat produced in the country, the ministry of agriculture should breathe easier, concerned as it is over the nationwide decline in area under wheat, which has been falling steadily over the past few years.
Though Uttar Pradesh by itself may not be in a position to offset the consequent dwindling of the national wheat production, which may be lower than the estimated 69.3 million tonnes by as much as 2.5 million tonnes, a good wheat crop in the statewould definitely help in minimising the shortfall.
But some pessimists among agro economists in the state strike a cautious note.
They maintain that while there has been a four to five per cent improvement in the early-sown wheat crop, the losses to the crop on account of inclement weather and late sowing has been more than 10 per cent, which totally nullifies any advantage that the good crop had given. It will be few more weeks before we know whether it is the optimists or the pessimists who were right.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
