The Ninth Plan document calls for an annual growth rate of 4.5 per cent in agriculture and allied activities excluding forestry with an investment of Rs 2,20,206 crore at 1996-97 prices.The document has noted a significant fall in public investment in agriculture in the Eighth Plan. It calls for a clear-cut policy on input subsidy.The growth rate projected for the Ninth Plan is expected to meet both the domestic demand and exports. The document stats that the value of output of agriculture and allied activities growing annually at the rate of 3.5 per cent would alone meet the domestic requirement.Foodgrain consumption is likely to increase from 194.70 million tonne in 1996-97 to 298.38 million tonne in 2011-12. In order to meet this demand, foodgrain production is projected to increase from 198.53 million tonne in 1996-97 to 304 million tonne in 2011-12. The document proposes that subsidised foodgrain through PDS be targetted only at the people below the poverty line so as to ensure that subsidies reachthe needy. The targetted annual growth rates in the value of agricultural output for the Tenth and Eleventh Plans are 4.30 per cent and 4.20 per cent, respectively.
The document states that deficit in pulses is expected to continue. Despite this, the production growth rate is projected to be stepped up from 3.5 per cent in the Ninth Plan to 4 per cent in the Tenth Plan and further to 4.5 per cent in the Eleventh Plan. As the demand for sugar and jaggery is expected to increase to 54 million tonne in 2011-12, the document has called for increasing the recovery rate in canes. The document states that the objective of reducing poverty, unemployment, and providing food and nutritional security is to be attained primarily through accelerated agricultural growth. Regionally differentiated strategies will be followed to realise the full potential of growth in every region. Direct poverty alleviation programmes will continue on an expanded scale. The emphasis will be on raising the capabilities of small peasantsand promoting sustainable agricultural systems, while at the same time conserving and maximising the value from scarce resources, water and land. Infrastructure development including minor irrigation will be given the highest importance.
Rural Infrastructure Development Fund will be targetted and credit facilities expanded. Co-operatives will be strengthened, so also land reform programmes. Support to agricultural research programmes will be enhanced, and new market linkages developed.The document recognises the symbiotic relationship between tribals and the forests and gives special focus to the Scheduled Castes, the tribals and the weaker sections living in and around forests.While to meet demand, growth in output is important, for income growth and poverty reduction it is the growth in value-added terms which is of crucial importance. The relationship between value of output and gross value added depends on the behaviour of the share of purchased inputs in total input and terms of trade betweenagricultural and non-agricultural sector.
The share of purchased inputs is expected to increase which would result in lower annual growth rate of gross value added compared to the growth rate of value of output. For gross value added to increase at the same rate as gross value of output in agriculture, terms of trade must improve in favour of agriculture. Assuming improvement in terms of trade in favour of agricultural sector, the annual growth rate in gross value added in agriculture is also expected to be 4.5 per cent.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
