For the last decade-and-a-half, political commentators have been learning a new vocabulary on electoral verdicts. The results of general elections are no longer just results; they are labelled as fractured mandates or anti-incumbency votes that lead to hung Parliaments.Not since 1984 has the electorate given any single party a clear majority in Parliament, and this has been interpreted by political analysts to mean that voters are sending confused messages on who they want as their rulers.
As many commentators have pointed out, this certainly means we are into an era of coalition politics. Others have said that this leads to permanent instability, and hence there is need for systemic changes, including perhaps a presidential form of government.
They are all somewhat right, but somewhat wrong as well. They are right in their interpretation that coalition politics is here to stay; wrong in their understanding that the electorate is sending confusing messages. In fact, the electorate is sending a veryclear signal that it is looking for "stable coalitions" that are representative of all major interests in the community. And they want not one, but two coalitions, to encapsulate the various interest groups.
The anti-incumbency vote in various states suggests that the electorate is looking for clear two-horse races where they can bet on one or the other. At the national level, a two-horse race essentially boils down to two broadly equal fronts, both of which are representative of various interest groups, so that voters have a real choice.
The voters have thrown blind anti-BJP-ism into the dustbin; they have done the same with blind anti-Congressism. This is the real underlying meaning of Verdict 1998, where both the combines -- (would-be) Congress-UF combine and the BJP-led group -- have been given a near-mandate to rule. At one level this could mean that the electorate does not really mind whether the next government is Congress-led or BJP-led, but one thing is clear: it does not want dishonestcoalitions of the kind we had the last time.
The UF coalition was a joke where the largest partner -- the Congress -- had no voice in government; the other large group supporting the coalition -- the CPI(M) -- had a booming voice but no responsibility to govern.
These kinds of coalitions -- where power and responsibility do not go together -- are inherently unstable.
By taking both the Congress and the BJP tantalising close to power, the electorate is perhaps saying in not-so-subtle terms that the country needs one Centre-Right coalition, headed perhaps by the Bharatiya Janata Party, and another Centre-Left one, headed by the Congress, to fill the government and opposition spaces respectively.
This is the closest we will get to the two-party system in a nation with so many religious, caste, and regional fissures.
Political parties that believe they can win on their own are living in a fool's paradise.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
