Varanasi, Mar 12: The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) improved its Lok Sabha election performance in Uttar Pradesh as a whole but faced problems and reverses in the biggest region of the state called Poorvanchal.Eastern Uttar Pradesh or Poorvanchal, which covers 33 parliamentary seats has always proved to be a stumbling block for the BJP. Whereas the BJP once again appeared to be caught in social equations of the region, the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party strengthened their position.
In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 18 seats. Its allies Samta Party won two seats. The Samajwadi Party got nine and Bahujan Samaj Party three.
In the process, the BJP suffered loss of one seat but it's ally Samta Party gained one neutralising the loss.
On the contrary, the Samajwadi Party gained three seats and the BSP increased one seat in the region.
For the BJP it was puzzling that its arch rival Samajwadi Party wrested seven seats from it in the region while it lost only three seats to BJP. BJP also lost a seat to BSP but at the same time it snatched a seat from BSP clearing the account.
However, it was the capturing of the Congress fortresses of Amethi and Pratapgarh and snatching of the Khalilabad seat from the Janata Dal that brought BJP acclaim.
Poorvanchal has often the been centre of attraction also because of many star campaigners joining the fray here. The region has given at least five prime ministers to the country.
This time political luminaries and heavy weights had mixed fortunes. The region once again bowed before the political stature of former minister Chandrashekhar in Ballia and former BJP president Murli Manohar Joshi in Allahabad. The region also sent BSP vice-president Mayawati, former union minister Sanjay Singh, Kalpnath Rai and Arif Mohammed Khan to Parliament.
However, former bandit queen Phoolan Devi's charisma did not work this time. Former chief minister Ram Naresh Yadav and former union minister Satish Sharma were also rejected by the voters. Unlike Arif Mohammad Khan who after deserting Congress could secure a seat on BSP ticket from Baharaich, the trick just did not work for former president of schedule cast commission Ramdhan who, doing away from his socialistic tradition, contested on a BJP ticket in Lalganj.
One striking fact which has emerged in the elections in the region is that backwards (mainly Yadav) -- Muslim polerization and dalit upsurge is not only intact here but appeared to be further sharpened. The BSP, apart from having monopolistic hold over, dalit votes had also been able to attract backwards among backwards.
In recent years, polarisation is also being witnessed in forward castes but it is not as rigid as the backward-muslim polarisation and dalit upsurge. Precisely because of this the Samajwadi Party could get the support of a section of forward castes, mainly rajputs, in a few constituencies by just putting up a caste candidate. It is not that BJP has the support of only forward castes. In recent years the party has been able to win the support of economically better off backwards and it had helped the party.
However, it is polarization of votes along the caste lines which dominated the politics in the region. Inability to penetrate the backward-muslim and dalit polarization in the region is BJP's biggest shortcoming.
Be it parliamentary polls or assembly polls the mood of Poorvanchal remains the same. However, in case of assembly elections, the worries of BJP increase manifold.
In the 1991 assembly elections, the BJP had been able to form the majority government in the state but could win only 84 seats out of 173 seats of the region. In 1993, the region in fact virtually ditched the BJP when it was hoping to better its prospects after the demolition of Babari mosque.
In 1993 assembly elections, the BSP-SP combine was able to get more seats than BJP in the region. BSP alone won 54 seats in the region and equalled BJP. The success rate then in Poorvanchal was a mere 31 per cent against the above 48 per cent in the rest of the state. Again in 1996, when BJP failed to achieve majority its inferior showing in eastern UP was one of the reason.
This time the party's success rate outside the Poorvanchal region was good at 75 per cent but in Poorvanchal, it could win only 55 per cent seats. In 1996, the party's success rate in Poorvanchal was eight per cent less than the rest of the state. The region comprises 39 per cent Lok Sabha seats and 41 per cent assembly seats of the state and because of this the region matters the most for any party.
Political anaylists and even some top BJP leaders of the state believe that the backward unity and their conflict with forward castes, which emerged in 1990 over the issue of Mandal Commission, still has traces in the region. They suggest that Samajwadi Party has more or less been able to replace Janata Dal as a force of social justice.
BJP satrategists are worried due to the rise of Samajwadi Party in the region. SP, apart from winning nine seats, finished second on 15 seats. BSP remained second in four places. Barring six or seven seats total votes secured by SP and BSP in a parliamentary segment was much more than BJP. BJP strategists are also worried due to any probable tie-up between SP and BSP.
Another striking thing which happened in Lok Sabha poll is that the people thought it better to keep at least 15 sitting MP's out of Parliament. Four others were denied ticket by their respective parties.
Most prestigious contest in Poorvanchal took place in former prime minister Chandrashekhar's constituency Ballia, former chief minister Mayawati's constituency Akabarpur and in Amethi which is often referred to as the preserve of the Gandhi family.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
