March 19: The Sensex is breathing hard; it failed to find sufficient strength to keep climbing up and, in the process, the field (balance) is slowly turning in favour of the bears.The market opened on a strong note with the Sensex at 3848.28, about 23 points above the previous close. But the high for the day was only just 4 points up at 3852.42, indicating the handicap under which the bulls have to operate. High carry-over charges are not very encouraging. While the bulls tried their best to haul up stock prices, there was clearly a limit, as the high for the day at 3839.53 was just 13 points over the previous high of 3839.53.
After a bold opening, prices softened and the Sensex headed south. The Sensex's low for the day at 3802.50 was still 14 points over the previous low and that's an indication that the bullish undertone is still there, but rather weak. The market recovered after mid-day, which again highlights that the bulls are still hopeful, but cautious. The market closed with the Sensex at3820.87, losing 5 points over the previous close. The fear now is that this marginal loss could magnify tomorrow, Friday being the last day for the BSE week.
Volatility was the by-product of the on-going even tussle between bulls and bears, as mentioned in this column yesterday. While many scrips posted gains, the closing was lower than the opening. Often they came to rest on the previous day's high.
On Friday, there will be a combination of two factors. The bulls are clearly besitatant; selective buys have taken place in blue-chips, possibly through FIIs. Volume growth in select counters could indicate bulls building up positions in anticipation of a flare up.
But with the market exhibiting only limited strength, there is a good chance of the BSE bulls lightening themselves. It would not be correct to say that the market has turned weak. Operators may still have the holding power and carry on positions to the close of the NSE week on Tuesday. And, once that scene unfolds strongly, it would not takemuch time for operators to reverse positions. We are at a threshold region, where operators could change their stance. That would increase the market risk tremendously. All said and done, the gut feel is that bears might serve their ace tomorrow!
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
