The Sensex went down marginally by 11 points to close at 3897.98. From the market behaviour it appears that values will refuse to go down seriously on Tuesday and that would be against the usual pattern.The market opened with the Sensex at 3952.21, a good 48 points jump over the previous close. It also went up to a high of 3980.90, posting 63 points jump over the previous high. The low for the day was at 3896.86 and the market closed at 3897.98.
Monday's trading pattern proves that the trading on last Friday was one certainly of booking profit abundantly. In fact the trading of Friday appears now as a dip. The 7-day exponential moving average is at 3893.06. So technically the Sensex has continued to maintain its buoyancy on the bullish mode.
It is also resting on the rising trend support line. The incline of this slope is however not very steep. In other words, the Sensex continues to make slow and plodding climb upwards. At times there have been outbursts from this base line, but the Sensex is yet tofall below the support line. With the market sentiment what it is now, probably Sensex could keep itself on this support line. The short term technical indicator has signalled a sell though. But if values drift down, Sensex could well find support at 3797, which is around 100 points down from the current level. I would recall reader's attention to my remarks of last week. I had said that Sensex had the potential to slip by 50 points. And should it slip by 100 points, buying in would quickly reverse the trend. That position is confirmed by Monday's market behaviour. In many pivotals, values opened higher and then came down. In short there is complete reversal of positions from one day to another. It also means that many are exploiting the intra-day opportunities.
This is abundantly possible just now, because many have a difficult time to make up their minds about what stance they should take.
But by and large, cautious profit booking has been the strong under current in the last two sessions. But withmuch profit booking having taken place, it is difficult to see how the market can go down further.
The most likely scenario for Tuesday is this. NSE operators would look for opportunities to exit not at any level, but at higher levels. This is possible, as BSE operators continue to get bullish on select counters. In short, cash in on intra-day opportunities on Tuesday. Value buying at low levels could emerge.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
