The Sensex went up further despite profit booking as anticipated in this column yesterday. Of the total intra-day spread of 60 points, over 30 points were overlapping between the range of movement of Monday and Tuesday. The index gained 24 points day-over-day by closing at 4194.21. Sensex may even touch 4440. The market opened on a subdued note at 4159.19, however, within minutes the market moved up and shortly peaked to a scale of 4216. Profit-taking brought the Sensex down to the level of 4188, but the index again climbed back to 4216. Today's rise was contributed by the Sensex heavy weights. ITC was the dark horse. Opening mildly at Rs 778, the scrip rose to Rs 786 only to fall back to Rs 780. Then came the surprise and shock for many when around 2 PM. the scrip took off steeply from Rs 780 to race to an unbelievable Rs 797. The move was totally unpredictable and could have trapped many. That is ITC again! That all this was achieved with only a slightly more volume than the previous day would lead oneto believe that ITC's base camp of Rs 765 is one of deep entrenchment.
Earlier in the day, HLL went up strongly, underscoring the bullish sentiment of the day. SBI was next to follow, and thereafter, Reliance and ITC close to each other. It was a concert in operation, with no sign of what was in store in the opening hours! ACC and Bajaj Auto are shedding their gains, but naturally. BHEL is into a slow decay of its height. Volumes of BSES have gone up but proves to be rather a difficult scrip to predict and handle.
Colgate is likely to attract small profit booking. At GE Shipping huge volumes have surfaced on profit booking, unlike the small volume on which it flared up. At Gujarat Ambuja there is a sustained attempt to pull it up to higher levels. But the pattern in the scrip movement should put you on guard. In my view, the movement in the scrip looks more contrived than market driven. You might take advantage and book profit on tops. The rise in HLL with volume is most interesting. In fact, one needs toinvestigate this as well as the similar pattern in Reliance and SBI to identify the drivers behind today's rally.There could well be an attempt to take the Sensex up to 4440. If that is the case, values can continue to flare up on the new NSE week. At such flare ups, bulls will manage to brush aside ideas of profit booking and induce others to join in the rally. Every one can get carried away. one has to watch how successful bulls are!
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.