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Friday, April 10, 1998

Paper diaries triumph over electronic gadgets 

Neil Winton  
LONDON, April 9: Computer gadget makers want Europeans to throw away their scruffy, bulging paper diaries in favour of high technology. But, according to experts, that's not going to happen anytime soon.

Current electronic diaries or hand-held computers are too much of a compromise, experts say. Gizmophiles, though, will still clamour for these state-of-the-art, expensive and often inadequate products.

``The market is quite immature and people are in the dark trying this and that,'' said analyst Therese Torris at research organisation Forrester's Amsterdam office.

``There's a great future for these devices from about 2000 on when we'll see a second generation of `smart' appliances that will combine the Internet, E-mail, data and telephone,'' Torris said.

The mass market wants a device that can store and display data, be used as a travelling personal computer and perform as a telephone. The perfect device hasn't arrived yet, but this hasn't stopped so-called personal digital assistants (PDAs) andhand-held computers being a huge hit in the USBig sellers in the US are led by 3Com Corp's Palm Pilot, a cigarette-pack sized PDA, whose features include an electronic diary and contact store.

The device sells for $399 in the US before tax. 3COM has shipped 1.4 million Palm Pilots and is gearing up for a sales assault on Europe.

Finnish mobile telephone maker Nokia Ab Oyj produces the 9000 Communicator, recently revamped as the 9110, a chubby phone which folds out to a keyboard and can send faxes and surf the Internet.

Little hand-held computers, so-called clamshell products,abound. There's Britain's Psion Plc's series ``5,'' and Hewlett-Packard Co's HP300. Compaq Computer Corp , Casio Computer Co Ltd , Sharp Corp and Philips Electronics NV also are contenders in this over-crowded market.

Most use Windows CE software, a detuned version of Microsoft's Windows 95. Psion uses its own operating system. There are mobile phones which can communicate with personal computers and swap information, and PalmPilot-like devices which can turn into telephones with little strap-on devices.

Many of these devices will be sold over the next five years, but they don't look like making much impression on the mass market. Paper diaries will be with us for some time yet. The computerised devices may be cute, but they are too expensive for regular consumers and don't offer a compelling reason to buy.

``There won't be much demand beyond technology drivers and executives who want to look good. They are expensive, complex and, most importantly, when you start using them, they haven't got the service competence,'' said Forrester's Torris.

Nevertheless, analysts expect brisk business in this emerging market.According to British researcher Inteco, European household purchases of electronic organisers will more or less double by 2001.

Inteco reckons that household penetration at the end of last year was 7.8 per cent in France, 9.2 per cent in Germany and 15.9 per cent in Britain.This will shoot up to 15 per cent in France,18 per cent in Germany and 23.9 per cent in Britain by 2001. Demand will be driven by users of personal computers at work wanting to swap data with little digital organisers for home or on-the-road working.

Research organisation IDC also sees powerful growth in smart phones, hand-held computers and PDAs. ``We see compound annual growth of around 56 per cent between 1997 and the end of 2001 for this group of products,'' said senior research analyst Allison Mckenzie at IDC.

``Which will be the biggest product area ? We think the smart phone which also gives you a PC companion,'' Mckenzie said. Smart phone products on the market include the Nokia, and Alcatel of France's ``One Touch COM'' mobile phone, on sale in April this year costing about $700.

Unveiled at last month's CeBIT technology trade fair in Hanover, Germany, the Alcatel product integrates a GSM mobile phone, personal organiser and Internet E-mail access.

Gartner Group of the US, another leading high-technology researcher, splits thesedevices into ``data first/voice second'' appliances, and ``voice first/data second.''

``We think these two devices will be separate. People like to have a data device in front of them and the telephone at their ear,'' said Gartner analyst Ken Dulaney.

``Nokia tried to put the two together with the 9000. The market has rejected these because they are too big and heavy. If you want to talk and look at data, it doesn't really work,'' Dulaney said.

Dulaney said the world market for cellullar telephone devices is a potential 100 million, split 50-50 between the US and Europe. The personal digital assistant market is much smaller, may be 10 million for the US and Europe.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.



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