Search Button
Net Express Sections
The Indian Express

The Financial Express


Latest News

Express Investment Week


Market Indicators


Screen

Express Computers

Travel & Tourism

Advertisers Forum




Information Technology

Drumbeat: Ad Buzzaar

Astrosurf

Eco-India

Dr Know

Screen: The Business of Entertainment


Career India

Business Forum

Match Maker

Express Properties


Corporate

Economy

Expressions

Markets

Leisure

 

Sunday, April 19, 1998

El Nino has a kinder, gentler side, say experts 

Jim Loney  
Miami, April 18: The Pacific Ocean warm-water phenomenon known as El Nino, which roared through the world like a science-fiction monster this winter, was blamed for everything from killer storms in the United States to wild fires in Brazil and poor coffee crops in Kenya.

But El Nino, "the Christ child" in Spanish, has a kinder, gentler side, climate experts say. So give it some credit -- for flattening hurricanes, replenishing water supplies, easing the cost of energy, boosting fish stocks and helping production of coffee, macadamia nuts and other crops.

In fact, for every facet of El Nino's whirlwind of destruction this winter, it may have brought a benefit to another part of the globe, experts said. "For the most part, El Nino is a good guy. But we have seen the bad side," said Chris Landsea, a meteorologist with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

El Nino, a complex warming in the Pacific off the coast of South America that often shows up around Christmas, brings a host ofplanetary climate changes, altering rainfall patterns, changing high-level winds and, in some cases, helping spawn terrifying storms.

The latest El Nino, at its peak last fall and winter, was the strongest on record, experts say. As a result, a host of freakish weather conditions were recorded around the world.

El Nino-fortified storms pounded California in February, killing at least 10 people, wiping out roads and forcing thousands from their homes as creeks and rivers flooded. Tornadoes spawned by El Nino storms struck the US south, killing dozens of people in Florida, Georgia and Alabama.

In Brazil, El Nino-related drought sparked wild fires that burned for months, threatening the Amazon rain forest and the reservation of the Yanomamis, the world's largest Stone Age tribe.

Even as Yanomami shamans held a ceremony to call down rain, downpours set off mudslide havoc in neighboring Peru. A dearth of rain in Panama, 35 per cent below average, forced restrictions on traffic in the Panama Canal, forcingshippers to juggle freight from Asia to the US east coast.

But experts said El Nino appears to produce some good for every ill. "Because of the nature of this El Nino, we focus on the disaster side. There's a plus side to El Nino too," said Ants Leetmaa, director of the US Climate Prediction Center.

Some of Brazil's rain forest may be charred, but its coffee production was expected to reach 35 million bags this season, the largest in a decade. While Brazilian coffee growers stand to benefit from the El Nino-related drought, Kenyan farmers, producers of the earthy, prized arabica coffee bean, faced devastation from an El Nino drenching in January and February.Kenya's coffee trees lacked the long spell of dry weather-growers say is needed to produce good flowering. Yet Kenyan macadamia nut-growers were poised to take advantage of a global shortfall, the result of drought in Hawaii, the world's top macadamia grower.

And while drought sparked fires and fierce smog conditions in Indonesia and Singapore,causing a drop in tourism revenues, vintners in Australia celebrated record harvests of high-quality grapes, thanks to El Nino.Unexpected rainfall in unexpected places has replenished reservoirs and aquifers across the globe, Leetmaa said. "Water is a problem in much of the world. Many of these areas needed water. It's going to carry them through the summer," he said. "Water managers were looking forward to El Nino."Central Florida, home to Disney World and other famed tourist attractions, suffered a swarm of killer tornadoes in February and had perhaps its wettest winter in a century. Rainfall in Tampa, for example, was 400 per cent above normal.

El Nino also produced record warm temperatures through much of the US north and mid-west, easing the need for heating fuel and saving the United States as a whole about 15 per cent of its normal winter energy costs, Leetmaa said.Some consumers also saw gasoline drop below $1 at the pump for the first time in years, he said. But the El Nino effect was a mixed bagfor apparel dealers. They fretted at Christmas when warm weather kept winter clothes on racks but rejoiced with an early start to spring buying.

At its peak last fall, El Nino also flattened the 1997 Atlantic hurricane season as the warm water stirred strong high-level winds that disrupted the formation of hurricanes. Forecasters had foreseen 11 tropical storms or hurricanes in the area -- but the season produced only seven, just one during the August-October period that historically sees more and bigger hurricanes.The South American fisheries of Ecuador, Peru and Chile -- rich in anchovy and sardine used for fish meal and producing some 30 per cent of the world's annual fish catch -- are classic examples of the positive-negative effect, experts say.

While small variations of water temperature produce massive fish kills, El Nino's flood of water raises coastal sea levels, expanding the areas where fish can grow in following years. The El Nino in 1982, one of the strongest on record, caused a prodigiousincrease in fish stocks along the west coast."Whatever happens to these species changes the world price of fish meal, which, in turn, changes the price of poultry," University of Miami marine scientist Nelson Ehrhardt said. "The whole economic structure of the industry will be impacted." The 1997 El Nino promises "a bonanza," which was already being seen in shrimp catches off Ecuador, he added. Worldwide fascination with El Nino has led scientists to look for new and better ways to learn its history and forecast its future, including examination of coral for El Nino data.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.



Syndicate Bank

Pidilite

Bank of India

 

Touchwood: Make Big Money Thru' Legitimate Means