New Delhi, April 22: It has all the ingredients of a blind bull run, the kind the stock markets had witnessed during 1992 and 1994. The difference is that we do not know who is leading the flock. During 1992 , Harshad Mehta led the investor community; in 1994 it was the foreign institutional investors.So what has started pulling the crowds to the bourses now? The BJP-led coalition? Hopes of a turnaround budget from finance minister Yashwant Sinha? Dollars pouring in from the foreign investor? Or is it that the corporates are going to produce a miracle in the second half and declare excellent profits? It certainly cannot be the last of these. When the results actually start pouring in, many investors would be holding stocks which are not worth what they are today. It's the set of losers in the first-half which are scoring phenomenal gains on the exchanges today. Take SAIL for example. Surely it was not worth Rs 7 (all-time low). But is it worth over Rs 16 (current price). Can the steel giant stem the slidein net profit? Only the results can say.
The Sensex has not yet crossed the 4,600-mark of last August, following the `dream budget' presented by P Chidambaram. Yet, it has all the ingredients of turning into a wave. Take the software scrips for example, which along with pharma, banking and engineering stocks have triggered the bull run. Anything that has a name which relates to computers is soaring on the marketing.
Says Dalal & Barocha head of research Milind Karmarkar: ``The rally has been perplexing. Although the rally started with fundamentally strong scrips, in the last 15 days we have seen almost all scrips moving up without any specific reason for this kind of rise.'' To a certain extent rumours like UTI launching a B1, B2 group and MNC sector specific funds have generated some interest in these stocks. Some operators have started cornering these stocks in the hope of offloading later. ``We have also witnessed the return of the small investors in some of the little known counters, which is not avery healthy sign. I expect a correction soon in these stocks and again the retail investors will end up burning their fingers just for being greedy,'' adds Karmakar.
Former DSE president Ashok Agarwal agrees. ``The current rally started on the back of government assurances of protecting the domestic industry which led to heavy buying in cement, steel and infrastructure stocks, this rally further got a boost from few takeovers and acquisitions. But this rally also provided punters/operators with an opportunity to corner stocks in B1 and B2 group. A sudden movement in scrips which have not been trading for some time plus some well-planned rumours succeeded in attracting the attention of small investors. These investors are then lured to buy these stocks. Punters are now playing this game of entering in the market before the rally moves to B2 group and exit before a correction takes place.''
Operators on Wednesday, however, booked profits. Has caution already set in or is it only a correction?
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.