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Saturday, April 25, 1998

Commodity Briefing 

 
SE Asian sugar premiums flat

Thailand's physical sugar premiums were little changed, mostly holding onto gains made the previous day on continued buying interest from Thai millers, traders said. Thai raw sugar premiums are quoted at 1.10/1.18 bid/offer for May-July delivery and 1.20/1.30 for July-September delivery, unchanged to fractionally down from Wednesday. Millers are seeking to buy back raw sugar in order to process it into white sugar for which there's a greater export demand, traders said. Indonesia, one of Thailand's main export markets, has limited refining capacity and therefore has a substantial white sugar import requirement. The sugarcane crushing season finished mid-April and the remelting is nearly complete, enabling millers to get a clearer picture of overall sugar production of both raw and white. This, in turn, will clarify whether they have oversold raws and need to buy back more to fulfil commitments.

"Brazil exports key to sugar price's "

The volume of sugar exportsfrom Brazil, the world's biggest sugar exporter, could hold the key to the price of raw sugar, John Barneby, managing director of British-based sugar trade concern Czarnikow Sugar Ltd. said. Barneby said part of the reason why the world raw sugar price has been sliding in recent months has been because Brazil has been increasing its sugar exports "because that has been a sensible thing for Brazil to do." "The problem is whether they can continue to do that at low market prices," he said in a radio interview broadcast Thursday. Barneby said a "major reason" for the drop in the price of raw sugar has been an oversupply in the white sugar market. The European Union had a very large crop in 1997 "and that has depressed prices," he said. "That in turn pushes prices of low quality sugar down's reaching similar levels to raw sugar, and so increasing the possibility of substitution occurring, undermining prices for this product, he added.

Demand for soyameal rises in China

China's demand for soyameal coulddouble to 20 million metric tons in the year 2000 from last year, Phil Laney, China Country Director for the American Soybean Association, told a conference. China's soyameal demand is surging with feedmeal demand, as livestock, poultry and aquaculture industries turn to manufactured feed. But changes in application of agricultural technologies and Association. China's soyameal demand has more than tripled in the same period, it said. China's meat consumption in the year 2000 is forecast to rise to 140 million tons from about 80 million tons in 1997, driving more demand for feedmeal, Laney said. The ASA estimates that feedmeal production will rise to 250 million tons in 2000 from just over 150 million in 1997. But how increased meat consumption will reflect on soyameal demand is still up in the air, Laney admitted, adding that government policy and application of current agriculture technologies could curb the expected jump in soyameal demand. Faster growing pigs, larger litters and changes in China’s stilllargely inefficient backyard swine-raising sector could reduce growth in feedmeal demand, he said.

US signs agriculture pact

US agriculture secretary Dan Glickman has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Turkmenistan President Saparmurad Niyazov to facilitate mutual cooperation and assistance in agriculture, the US department Of agriculture said. "This Memorandum of Understanding signifies a new world of opportunity for the people of Turkmenistan," Glickman said. "By sharing information in a number of areas, including current agricultural production techniques and practices, we will help Turkmenistan enter the 21st century as an equal partner in today’s market economy."Demand for coffee up

Central American arabicas were in weak demand this week as buying interest waned in a market void of panicky short coverers, traders said Wednesday. Traders called spot trading in the US "non-existent" with little bidding and little selling. Nearby shipments were under pressure, traders said,as Central American countries are at the end of their crops. "Usually what you would see right now is people looking to buy against the July contract and origins looking to sell against May (because May is at about a 5-cent premium to July), but there is no buying interest," said a physical trader. "Everyone trying to sell against the nearby," said one physical trader. "If they lower the differential they have some luck." In the futures market, May and July contracts traded erratically throughout the week as buyers weighed supply fears brought on by dwindling CSCE certified stocks with Brazil's looming crop. Reports of declining consumption also pressured prices. Wednesday, first-notice day for the May contract, the May contract closed at $1.4800, up 0.20 cent from its previous close. The active July contract fell 0.25 cent to $1.4320.

China copper futures end mixed

Copper futures on the Shanghai and Shenzhen metals exchanges ended mixed Friday, as a technical rebound after sharp falls Thursdaywas curbed by bearish fundamentals, traders said. The benchmark Shanghai August contract is at CNY18,520 a metric ton on trading of 10,758 tons, and the Shenzhen August contract at CNY18,430 on trading of 3,100 tons, both up CNY10 ($1=CNY8.28). The gains came on short covering, which lifted the Shanghai contract to CNY18,600 in early trading, traders said. But Thursday’s bearish market trend returned, dragging the contract down as shorts built positions.Shorts are in control of the market, a Shenzhen-based metals analyst said. "Weak cash buying and high copper stocks are pressuring the futures downward, and there’s a lot of concern that the recent upswing in (London Metal Exchange) copper won’t last."

China copper import up

China imported more than 100,000 metric tons of copper during January-April, although government customs statistics have yet to confirm the total, a Shenzhen-based analyst with Star Futures Co, China’s largest futures trader, told Dow Jones Newswires Friday.

LME copperdown

London Metal Exchange stocks of copper were Friday reported at 277,350 metric tons, down 6,175 tons, reflecting buoyant physical demand in Europe and the US, traders and analysts said. LME copper stocks have this week fallen 27,625 tons, or 9 per cent. Since the start of the year they are down 15 per cent. Recent copper stock declines can be attributed to the “unexpected strength of the Western market”, said Alan Williamson, commodities analyst at Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, in a note to clients on Friday. He said stock declines earlier in the year were the result of arbitrage between the LME and the Shanghai Metal Exchange. But the price differential between the two exchanges had since narrowed, making it very unlikely that the recent stock draw down was linked to arbitrage, he said. Delayed shipments of Russian copper could still be some weeks away, while Chilean metal, rumoured to be bound for Europe, may not show up in stocks because it is already committed to consumers, according to Robin Bhar,head of research at Brandeis (Brokers) Ltd.

Japan crude index standard

The average pricing standard of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange Asian Petroleum Index (Tapix) declined by 18 cents a barrel to $12.93 a barrel, according to Tocom, Japan’s largest commodity futures exchange. Tapix Light & Sweet was at $14.03/bbl, down 18 cents, while Light & Sour was $12.30/bbl, down 28 cents. Heavy & Sweet was $13.48/bbl, down 8 cents, and Heavy & Sour was $11.75/bbl, down 18 cents from the previous day. Tapix is publicised as five dollar-denominated pricing standards defined by content of sulfur and API gravity, including Average (API 35 and 1.0 per cent sulfur), Light & Sweet (API 40 and 0.1 per cent sulfur), Light & Sour (API 40 and 2.0 per cent sulfur), Heavy & Sweet (API 30 and 0.1 per cent sulfur), and Heavy & Sour (API 30 and 2.0 per cent sulfur). Tapix is constructed through a multiple regression analysis based on a basket of 31 crudes delivered and consumed in Asia, whose prices and quality specificationsencompass sulfur content, API gravity and yields of refined products.

Asian naphtha down

Asian naphtha spot prices are lower on Thursday from late Wednesday, in line with weaker crude oil futures, while gasoline prices are flat to higher under tight market conditions, traders said. The New York Mercantile Exchange June contract declined by 44 cents to close at $15.54 a barrel. The contract showed a marginal increase of 10 cents to $15.64/bbl.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.



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