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Tuesday, April 28, 1998

Commodity Briefing 

 
Thailand rice export down: Thailand's unofficial rice exports for the week ended April 18 totalled 79,565 metric tons, down 68,723 tons from the previous week, according to a report released late Friday by the the US department of Agriculture attache in Bangkok. Exports were down 44,943 tonnes from the four-week moving average of 124,508 tonnes, the USDA report said. Rice exports during Jan. 1 to April 19 totalled 2.14 million tons, compared with 1.26 million tons during the same period in 1997, the report said.

Kuala Lumpur palm oil higher: Palm oil futures on the Kuala Lumpur Commodity Exchange opened higher Monday on spill-over buying from Friday. The KLCE third month benchmark contract, now July, opened up MYR15 a metric tonne at MYR2,360 a tonne. Trade sources didn't pinpoint any specific bullish influences early Monday, but several noted that strong underlying fundamentals continue to buoy the market. Malaysian palm oil output this year is forecast to be 8.7 million tonnes, down from 9million tonnes last year. Malaysia is the world's largest producers and exporter. They added that the ringgit's slight fall against the dollar has had very little effect on the market early Monday. At 0331 GMT, the dollar was trading at MYR3.7800, up from MYR3.7614 late Friday.

Malaysian palm oil export dips: Malaysia's processed palm oil exports during the first 25 days of April fell 1.8 [er cent from the same period in March, according to estimates released Monday by cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. Intertek estimated March palm oil exports at 557,739 metric tonnes, down from the 567,760 tonnes it estimated were exported during the first 25 days in March. Australian wheat shipments downThe Australian Wheat Board exported 200,594 metric tons of wheat in the week ended April 24, taking exports this marketing year ending Sept. 30, 1998, to 8.81 million tonnes, the board reported Monday. Exports included 77,902 tonnes from Western Australia state, 65,690 tonnes from Victoria and 57,003 tonnesfrom New South Wales. Exports this marketing year are down 28 per cent from the 12.24 million tonnes shipped in the year-earlier period. The board estimates output last crop year ended March 31, 1998, at 19.0 million tonnes, sharply down from a record 23.7 million tonnes previously. The board estimates exports this marketing year at around 15.0 million tonnes, down from record exports last year of 18.97 million tonnes. The board has a monopoly on exports of wheat from Australia.

Chicago wheat closes lower: July Chicago wheat futures closed the week 8 1/2 cents lower after scoring new contract lows. Wheat continues to be dominated by bearish old crop fundamentals including competitive world wheat prices from the EU and Turkey. In fact, last weeks $21.97 ECU EU wheat export subsidies has pressured the USDA to investigate reinstating programs such as EEP and GSM-5 to help US wheat regain its lost export share and become more competitive. USDA Ag Sec Glickman is feeling extreme pressure from the US wheatindustry and home state producers in Kansas to lift US wheat prices before the 1998 HRW harvest. In the near term, the best chance for significant improvement in wheat prices hinges on adverse weather developments.

Argentine corn prices rise: Argentine corn, wheat and soybean prices followed the Chicago Board of Trade to a higher close Friday, with weekly wheat sales down from last week. Wheat sales during the April 20-24 period totalled only 40,000 metric tons, down from 270,000 tons during the previous week, according to the Agricultural Markets Association. Jordan and Slovenia led the buying, with 10,000 tons each. Total sales of the 1997-1998 wheat crop totalled 7.15 million metric tonnes as of April 24 versus 8.92 million tonnes at the same date last year, the industry group said in its weekly sales report released Friday. Wheat generally posted small gains in Buenos Aires Friday, with spot unchanged at $115.00 per tonne. May contracts closed at $118.20, up 30 cents; while July closed at $124.50up 40 cents. Other months posted small gains.

MGE wheat ends flat: Prices of hard spring wheat futures at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange ended unchanged Friday amid active spread trading. Market participants said gains in the corn futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade constrained potential losses in Minneapolis wheat. "If corn had moved into negative territory, we would have collapsed. The support just wasn't there. All session, we looked stronger than we were,' said a broker.

CBOT corn, wheat close higher: Corn and wheat futures closed mostly higher Friday at the Chicago Board of Trade with weather continuing to be the major influence on the market, analysts said. "Right now with the wet forecast, we're nervous," said John Zanutto, a vice president at Merrill Lynch on the CBOT floor. "European and South American feed grains are being offered at discounts to US business." He said although the markets closed slightly higher, the intraday was higher than the close. "What a terribleclose," he said. "We closed where we opened after trading 9 cents higher (i corn) all day." Victor Lespinasse, an analyst with AG Edwards on the CBOT floor, said rains forecast for the Northern Plains are causing concerns because of fears of corn planting delays. He said new-crop wheat was flat because rain is forecast in the Southwest Winter Wheat Belt.

Mexico coffee futures plunge: The cash market for Mexican arabicas was thin this week as producers reduced their offers because of the sharp decline on the futures market Thursday, physical traders said Friday. "Offers are pretty much washed out after yesterday's (Thursday's) flush on the market," said one cash trader. On Thursday, coffee futures on the Coffee, Sugar & Cocoa Exchange plunged sharply lower with both the May and July contract hitting five-and-a-half month lows as speculators bailed out of long positions. The May contract fell 9.40 cents to $1.3860 while the July contract fell 10.05 cents to $1.3315. The nearby May contract endedtrading Friday at $1.3615 a pound while July, the active contract, ended at $1.3145 a pound. "Unless producers are forced to do business, they don't," said another trader.

Comex copper ends lower: Copper futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange ended lower on Friday on a technical correction of recent gains, coupled with producer selling, analysts said. "We've seen producer seeing and some Chinese selling at the highs, but today (Friday) we're also seeing a bit of weekend profit-taking," said Fred Demler, senior vice president for ED&F Man in New York, pointing out that Friday's market was weaker toward the end of the session. However, Demler said, the fundamental picture for copper remains strong, with a continuation of large declines in warehouse inventories. London Metal Exchange warehouse copper stocks fell by 6,175 metric tons to 277,350 tons Friday in a continuation of hefty declines seen throughout the month.

CFTC copper may move higher: The most recentcommitments of traders report by the the Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicates that large speculators - referred to as non-commercials in the accumulation of long positions. The report shows the non-commercials net long position at 12,591 contracts, which Evans said indicates only a small exposure to downside pressure. In copper, the COT report indicates there's a possibility of a higher move. With a non-commercial net long position of only 6,141 contracts, Evans said there is room for more buying in copper. However, he pointed out that copper's seasonal cycle dictates that prices hit a high in late April or early May before moving lower during the seasonal summer slow period.

Kazakstan agrees to sell shares in oil: Kazakstan has signed agreements with foreign investment banks for the sale of shares in several of its major industries, including an oil-and-gas company. The deals, designed to boost the central Asian country's stock exchange as part of the government's blue-chip privatisationprogram, were made despite an announcement earlier this month by Kazak President Nursultan Nazarbayev halting all privatisation of his country's oil-and-gas sector for the next two generations.

(Compiled from agencies)

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.



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