According to the latest information, the agriculture ministry has estimated 1997-98 cotton crop at only 106 lakh bales, sharply lower than Cotton Advisory Board's estimates of 148 lakh bales announced in February 1998. CAB's estimates were itself lower than trade estimates of around 156 lakh bales, after last year's record cotton production of 177.90 lakh bales.

In order to reduce, if not avoid completely, the recurrence of vast differences, representatives of all the three agencies--industry's (East India Cotton Association), CAB and the agriculture ministry--have decided to jointly undertake a fresh assessment of the cotton crop in the current cotton season.

This was decided at a meeting of representatives of the industry, CAB and the ministry in New Delhi on Thursday (April 30), where these sharp divergent and lower,figures were questioned by the ministry officials.

Different agencies adopt their own methods of assessing cotton crop in a given year. And therefore, the vast difference in estimates.

According to sources, the ministry estimates the cotton crop by using crop-cutting method where very few samples are taken at the time of crop arrival. This is then multiplied by the area under cultivation.

On the other hand, the CAB takes into account the actual arrivals of cotton in the market, while also giving importance to raw cotton pickings at various stages of harvest. This therefore, gives higher estimates for CAB in comparison to that of the ministry's.

The highly varying estimates in the current cotton crop was therefore, hotly debated during the meeting wherein it was decided to undertake jointly a fresh study of cotton crop at three major cotton producing areas--Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka--where the difference in estimates has been large. Crop estimates in Maharashtra will be reviewedseparately.

However, other methods adopted by respective agencies will be employed in assessing the cotton crop in these states. The meeting was attended by secretary in the ministry of agriculture JNL Shrivastava, chairman and managing director of Cotton Corporation of India MB Lal, president of East India Cotton Association Suresh Kotak and Dr Sanjiv Mehta, among others.

The latest estimates announced by CAB are also 21 lakh bales, lower than the initial estimates it arrived at in the earlier meeting held in December 1997. CAB had made a downward revision in the estimated production of cotton in case of five major states mainly due to the after effects of heavy rains in winter that continued for eight to 10 consecutive with no sunshine which resulted in rotting of not only the standing plants but also the seedlings in their initial stages.

Normally strong sunshine following winter rains is considered to be good for the quality as well as quantity of the cotton crop, but this year it has ruined thechances of both and CAB fears that the country will harvest coarse and short staple length cotton.

Maharashtra's estimate had been drastically reduced by 16 lakh bales to just 15 lakh bales and the estimate for Madhya Pradesh is marginally down by 50,000 bales to 19 lakh bales.

There was also a downward revision of 2.50 lakh bales in the estimate for southern zone to 37 lakh bales. Andhra Pradesh is expected to produce 22 lakh bales against the initial estimate of 25.50 lakh bales which is down by 3.50 lakh bales. Estimated cotton production of Karnataka had been revised upwards by one lakh bales to nine lakh bales.

According to estimates, the opening stock is taken at 30.38 lakh bales leading to a total availability of cotton during the year at 183.38 lakh bales (inclusive of 6.00 lakh bales of loose cotton and imports of 5.00 lakh bales) down from 217.36 lakh bales in 1996-97.