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Tuesday, May 5, 1998

ECB row goes to heart of EMU woes 

Henry Engler  
London, May 4: The political row in choosing the head of a European Central Bank (ECB) goes to the heart of perhaps the most fundamental criticism of economic and monetary union -- lack of political union.

While a single currency may indeed become a reality on January 1, 1999 for 11 European nations, its survival and success will depend on the ability of those states to put aside their individual differences for the greater good of all, say analysts.

``For EMU to succeed you will need more political harmonisation,'' said economist Sharda Persuad at Paribas in London.

The events seen in Brussels this past weekend, however, were not an auspicious beginning.

The deal secured by EU leaders that named Dutchman Wim Duisenberg as head of the ECB included the understanding that he would step down on grounds of his age once euro notes and coins come into being in 2002.His early departure, which was described by all as voluntary, would allow Bank of France governor Jean-Claude Trichet to take over the reins ofpower and appease demands that a Frenchman should be in charge of the powerful central bank.

At the very least, analysts say the decision flouts the spirit of the Maastricht Treaty which says the presidency should be for a full eight-year term.

Moreover, for a new institution that already faces an enormous task in garnering public support and acceptance, such political horse trading demonstrates what for many should be avoided in Europe -- mixing politics too intimately with money.

It was because of the tainted relationship the two have had together, demonstrated most vividly in Germany's experience with hyper-inflation during the 1920s, that agreement was reached to give the ECB a maximum amount of independence from political oversight.

Yet in tainting the ECB's first presidency, analysts say EU leaders have opened the door to speculation over how much politics will be working behind the scenes.``I think politics is going to be something that's always in the background,'' added Persuad. ``People aregoing to come under quite a lot of pressure from their governments to represent their national interests.''

Although the ECB's mandate to price stability is well enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty and its independence far beyond that seen among other central banks, the mere fact that nation states will still comprise the euro area means that political unity on controversial policy issues may often come at a premium.

``If you had experienced the events of today you would not have got the impression that this had anything to do with creating a union,'' said Austrian foreign minister Wolfgang Schussel in summarising the EU decision.Much will depend on central bankers themselves and their ability to keep external meddling over their policy decisions at arm's length, say analysts.

They will also have to speak with one voice and avoid the impression of sharp differences in forming policy.``You will have to give the central bank time to settle down,'' says economist Niels Thygesen at Copenhagen University.``Too much openness, such as appearing before national parliaments, would not be good in the initial stages of the bank's operations.''

Yet efforts to make the ECB more accountable and open to public scrutiny are well under way, with the European parliament leading the charge.Offering a glimpse of the future, Socialist group leader Pauline Green at the EP, said: ``We all know very clearly the sort of phone calls the (ECB) governor will get in the middle of the night, and we know where they will come from.''

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.



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