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Wednesday, May 13, 1998

Indonesia must discard politically sensitive monopolies, say IMF 

Bill Tarrant  
SEOUL, May 12: Indonesia's politically sensitive monopolies still have to be dismantled, but its reform programme remains generally on track, a senior International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said on Tuesday.

Dismantling monopolies and ending preferential treatment for certain companies was essential to the success of the $40-billion IMF programme in Indonesia, the fund's Asia and Pacific director Hubert Neiss said.

"It's a symbol that the government has changed course and is serious in shaping the reform process, and that is essential for market psychology," Neiss said.

"The emphasis will be on financial restructuring and on various structural reforms in the real sector -- dismantling of monopolies, discontinuation of special tax and credit treatment for certain firms..." Monopolies covering such politically sensitive issues as cloves, associated with president Suharto's youngest son, and plywood have been technically abolished.

Monopolies and subsidies for other commodities other than rice aredue to disappear by October 1. Last week's riots in Medan over fuel and power price increases sent shudders across Asian markets as the Indonesian rupiah plunged to touch the 10,000/dollar level.

But if the reform programme stays on track the rupiah should strengthen back to the 6,000 level that Jakarta's budgetary projections are based upon, Neiss said.

"If confidence returns, it is possible and feasible that the exchange rate will return to levels we had assumed in calculating the budget," he said.

An agreement reached last weekend in Tokyo between Indonesia and its international bank creditors to roll over part of the country's $80 billion in corporate debts is a `significant achievement,' IMF deputy managing director Stanley Fischer. In an interview in Tuesday's edition of the Financial Times, Fischer was also quoted as saying it should help underpin the rupiah.

A revised IMF programme was put in place after the fund expressed dissatisfaction with Jakarta's implementation of reforms --particularly the dismantling of monopolies -- under an earlier $40-billion package.

Neiss said Jakarta was keeping to its end of the deal this time. "One important element is that the economic reform programme is on track, that all the measures that were agreed upon are implemented fully and on time," said Neiss, who was in Seoul to consult with government officials about South Korea's $58.35-billion IMF programme.

"I should say that so far this has been fully the case. All measures agreed to... have been implemented," he said. "There is, of course, political risk to the programme. That everybody knows and we all have to live with," Neiss said.

Neiss said the government and the IMF had agreed that last week's fuel and power rate increases would be put into effect in the early part of the fiscal year that began on March 31.

"The precise timing was a decision by the government." The monetary part of the programme was vital to contain the threat of hyper-inflation in Indonesia, he said. "The problem inIndonesia is that, because of past developments, the country is on the brink of hyper-inflation. And everything has to be done to prevent that because that would inflict much heavier damage on the people."

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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