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Wednesday, May 13, 1998

The tremors are mild now, don't panic 

OUR MARKET BUREAU  
MUMBAI, May 12: It was a bomb that the market did not anticipate. "The bomb seems to have exploded on the markets," said a broker, summing up the mood in the market on Tuesday. Apart from voices of dissent by a few western countries there was not much for brokers to base the future projections on.

The line was still the same in that it all depends on the sanctions that the US would impose on India.

"What do you feel will come of it?" was the question every broker had on his mind and hoped that ``it would die down in a few days''.

Says Rajendra Bhantia, BSE vice president,``The reaction to the nuclear explosion by the market players, is a temporary phenomenon. The nervousness has to fade off within a couple of days.'' Foreign players refrained from the local bourses today. ``We were not expecting any response from them. Unfortunately our local institutions fail to emerge as aggressive buyers which can take care of such shakeouts.''Arun Kejriwal, chief of dealing, Wood stock Securities, expects somefurther selling initially tomorrow, being the first day of the trading cycle on NSE. ``But it should stabilise once the market realises the importance of the action taken by the prime minister.''

As Milind Karmarkar, Head of Research, Dalal & Broacha puts it the market has taken the news of nuclear test very well, although there was initial panic. Marketmen are not taking any fresh positions as the stand of US about sanctions is not yet clear. ``The market is likely to move in the narrow band of 50-70 points till this uncertainty about US sanctions continue,'' he points out. ``I feel that with most of the South Asian economies in recession, the US is not in a position to ignore business opportunities with a big market like India. Even the message from the White House yesterday was very carefully worded.''

Motilal Oswal, member BSE, does not see any panic in the market. ``The Sensex is likely to continue its downward journey at least for the next two days; the rest depends on the reaction of internationalcommunity. With the budget also round the corner it is difficult to judge the likely trend in the market.'' There will not be any major buying for the next two days although domestic institutions made heavy purchases today. ``I personally feel US will not impose any sanctions. In case India signs the treaty, the trade with US can improve which is likely to have a positive impact on the economy,'' he adds.

Sanjay Kaul, FE Securities, member of Delhi Stock Exchange, feels the market movement in the next two days will basically depend on the stand taken by the international community. In a heavily overbought market, a correction was needed.

``Today's correction is healthy for the market. The market is likely to bounce back very soon unless there is some unfavourable reaction from US or IMF/World Bank in next two days.''

Subhash Chugh, member of DSE and NSE, feels the market has overreacted and investors should follow a wait and watch policy.

Rajesh Jain, President and CEO, Pranav Securities, says thePokhran explosion was meant to deliver to the international community and those on the periphery like Pakistan on the defense preparedness of India. The Indian government has taken a risk both on the economic and trade front. The market is not very nervous now as it is known now that the government will leverage on this while subscribing in part or full to the CTBT and will jockey its way for a stronger position in the international arena.

According to V R Deshpande, President, Twentieth Century Asset Management Corporation, the market will remain nervous for some time but will effectively recover. The impact of sanctions is not expected to be very severe on the Indian market as in terms of investment by FIIs it is very low and the rest is internally generated. ``....bilaterally the US does not give India much. But if the European Union also comes together with the US then we are in trouble. Otherwise, the market will shed its pessimism in a short span of time.''

Ajay Srinivasan, Managing Director,Prudential ICICI AMC, says the market has ``definitely over reacted today but in the long run the markets will come to its normal course. This is because the world is driven by business today and the example was set by China when the US business community pressurised the US government to give the most-favoured-nation treatment to China. The sanctions will not be too much."

"Pokharan I did not hurt us much"

Pokharan 1 tremors were not felt in Dalal Street during 1974. The old guard which had seen it all in 1974, were quick to point out how things were different then and as a result of which the impact on the markets could be more far reaching now.

Says BSE president, JC Parekh: "The reaction to the nuclear explosion in 1974 was quite different. The perception then was that India needs to demonstrate its nuclear strength, which was welcomed by the broking fraternity as well. On that historic day when the explosion took place the market failed to react, it continued to be flat. However,surprisingly, within a short span of about two to three days, the market mood changed with fresh bouts of purchases which pushed the market indices upward".

"Today, however, the mood is completely bearish. Sanctions and the nature of treatment which could be meted out to India, for conducting the nuclear test is haunting marketmen", he adds. Another veteran broker, Bhupen Dalal, says that India was an insulated nation in 1974. ``But today we are on the path of globalisation, more a part of the world economy. Our markets are dependent on the investments by FIIs and the non resident Indians. Every such move would create barriers in our relations with the foreign entities. The only fear is that it should not lead to a reverse impact like it happened in the case of Iraq", says Dalal.

Jayesh Sheth, treasurer of BSE recounts that the dividend control policy announced by the then finance minister in 1974 had already set the market sentiments negative. "Market was in the doldrums due to this budgetary policy,hence could not react to any such defence measures undertaken by the government.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.

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