NEW DELHI, May 12: Multilateral aid is not likely to get affected as a consequence of India conducting nuclear tests but bilateral aid can suffer, senior government officials told The Financial Express.Despite the US government's displeasure with India, it may not be easy for the US Exim Bank to cut off guarantees for projects in India as that will hit the US industry as well.
Guarantees can be withheld for projects yet to be finalised but the US Exim cannot withdraw support to projects which have cleared financial closure, officials said.
Japan, which is in the process of considering sanctions, has made commitment of bilateral aid to India to the extent of $1.25 billion. US has made a commitment of $160 million. It is this aid which can shrink or evaporate, officials said.
However, all commitments do not translate into actual inflows as that hinges on the pace at which the projects get off the ground.
Major contributors to bilateral aid to India, besides Japan and the US, are Germany (about$500 million), the UK (about $140 million) and Netherlands (about $120 million).
Commenting on the likelihood of the World Bank imposing sanctions against India, a senior government official said even the president of the World Bank cannot take such a decision on his own, sanctions against a country is a mega issue which has to be decided by the governing council of the Bank.
In the World Bank, the US has a voting percentage of 15.29 and Japan has a percentage of 10.69. Even if the two countries combine it may not be possible for them to push India to the wall, the official said. The World Bank has committed itself to an aid of $2.5 billion for India in the current financial year.
The developed countries together command a voting percentage of 61.62 whereas the developing world has a voting percentage of 38.38 in the Bank. Hypothetically speaking the developed nations can come together to cast India out but in practical terms this is just not possible. The developed world cannot band up together againstan Asian country, this is not in the realm of possibility the official said. India has a voting strength of 3.14 per cent in the World Bank and it is a member of the lesser powerful "part two" section.
Major multilateral agencies funding India are the Asian Development Bank which has commitments in the vicinity of $2 billion and the various United Nations agencies which give about $1 billion. Aid from other agencies as IFC Washington and some European agencies is not on the same volumes as the big funding agencies.
The problem for the US and other countries upset with India is that there is no precedent before them to act upon, officials said. Democratic countries which have their parliaments and public opinion to worry about are going about a making noise but China, which must be more upset than the western nations, has made no noise, they said. Therefore, one cannot conclude that retaliation will come from those who are making noise, they added.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.