"If the rain continues throughout May, then we may be able to make up for the loss in tea production occurred during the last four months because of drought" says Hamid Ashraf, executive director (south) of Tata Tea.

The growth of the tea leaves depends much on the moisture content in the soil and hence the last rain received determines the prospects of the crop. Good rainfall during April-May generally gives the highest tea output during these months. During monsoon, from June to August, the production curve dips down due to excessive moisture and in September-October again the production picks up but not above April-May peak. During the winter, preferably during November to January, the output again falls and starts improving February onwards.

Nevertheless, the rainfall is critical factor for this tea-cycle.Also higher temperature gives lower yield. This year around, the tea growing areas in the south are in the grip of warmer climate. The temperature in Munnar where Tata Tea gardens are located over vast expanse of over 240 square miles, has risen by 1-2 degrees.

Another unique change in the climate has been that while night temperatures dropped to the lows reached during the winter in December, the day temperature went up to the highs of the summer. "In my 30 years as a planter here, I have never seen such a climate" says Virendra Lal, senior manager of Chokanad estate of Tata Tea at Munnar. Droughts are common feature of south Indian climate but such wide intra-day fluctuations in temperatures are inexplicable. "It may be because of El Nino" says Lal.

However, the sources at Tata Tea feel very optimistic about the current year's outlook. With shortage in tea supplies from major tea producing countries, the tea prices are expected to be on the higher side. This is likely to give Tata Tea a higher revenueeven if the crop fails to some extent.

Over the last six months, tea prices kept rising to dizzy heights only to slide later. A higher Kenyan tea crop this year and a positive outllook for Indian tea have led to fall in international prices of tea over the last few weeks.