USDA sees higher wheat exports: US wheat exports are forecast at 30.62 million tonnes in 1998-99, up nearly 2.5 million tonnes in the face of a smaller world crop, US agriculture department said last week. In its monthly supply-and-demand report, USDA also forecast the US share of world wheat trade to rise to 26.3 per cent in 1998/99, from 24.5 per cent in 1997/98, which ends May 31. Global wheat production in 1998-99 is projected to fall about 2 per cent to 596.95 million tonnes, from a record 610.69 million in 1997-98, because of reduced area and yield in a number of countries. US production is forecast at 64.11 million, down about 4.65 millionfrom 1997-98. But the overall US wheat supply is forecast higher this year because of larger carryover stocks, USDA said. World wheat competition should remain fierce in 1998-99 as several major importers expect larger crops. Among the exporters, lower supplies are expected in Argentina and Canada, but the European Union crop is expected to rise and Australia's crop stay about the same, USDA said.

Rouen grain exports down: Grain exports from the French Port of Rouen dropped to 553,783 tonnes in April 1998 from 606,000 tonnes in April 1997, Port officials said last week.

US wheat exports to Indonesia: Wheat sales to Indonesia under the US government's export credit system was seen as inevitable given the attractiveness of the credits, an official with Australia's wheat export board said last week. He was commenting on trade reports that Indonesia was believed to have bought 50,000 tonnes of US dark Northern Spring wheat. "It's not surprising, it was a matter of time given the GSM (the USexport credit system)," Tim Dewan, Southeast Asia regional manager for the Australian Wheat Board (AWB) said.

ISO sees a balanced sugar market: Preliminary figures show that world sugar production will reach 123.8 million tonnes in 1997-98, only slightly exceeding global consumption of 123.7 million, the International Sugar Organisation said last week. In its previous estimate on March 20, the ISO put output at 123.365 million tonnes and consumption at 123.729 million.

German wheat exports: German wheat exports from the old crop are petering out while uncertainty about the 1998-99 world supply balance means new crop negotiations have not even started, traders said. Fob prices were broadly unchanged, with little new business reported. Prices were supported by the possibility some last-minute sales into German grain intervention in May could curtail supply for the summer months. But downward pressure was noted from problems associated with internal battles over cleaning costs as some exportlots had been found to contain deer excrement, according to trade talk. Traders said the problem was being addressed in talks between producers and traders, especially with regard to the new crop, where recurring problems would be undesirable. The Nov/May intervention season so far has seen just under 250,000 tonnes of wheat sales into public stocks out of a total 4.73 million tonnes of grain. New crop wheat prices were seen at a discount to old crop,given a large European crop was likely to add to bigger crops in main exporting nations such as Australia and the US. This year, traders said. But if world wheat crops turn out lower in 1998, as projected by the International Grain Council, prices could change direction, they said.

New US food safety standards: The United States should halt imports of fruits and vegetables from countries that do not meet American food safety standards in order to protect consumers from illness, a report to Congress said last week. The report said the Food and DrugAdministration should require exporters to adopt "equivalent" safety standards for fruits and vegetables, much like the Agriculture Department does with meat. As many as 9,000 Americans die annually from foodborne diseases, and tens of thousands of others are sickened, according to federal estimates. But some industry groups responded coolly to the report's recommendations. Currently, FDA officials inspect just 1 to 2 percent of food imports under their jurisdiction and the pace of imports has increased rapidly as Americans demand more fresh produce year-round. Last year, 38 percent of fruit and 12 percent of vegetables consumed by Americans were imported.

Indonesian riots worry Aussies: Rioting and political turmoil in Indonesia heightened concern in Australian commodity export industries last week. The wheat market was a main focus for developing jitters, with Indonesia the second-largest market for Australia's A$3 billion wheat export market last year. Gary Booth of Ord Minnett Jardine FlemingFutures said the Indonesian situation was having an effect on the grain market. An official with the Australian Wheat Board (AWB) confirmed that a planned visit to Indonesia this week by AWB officials, as part of a regular trip through Asia, had been called off because of the turmoil. Until this week's turmoil there had been no impact on Australian wheat sales from events in Indonesia, he said."We were pretty well on track and near enough in line to last year's sales." This week's turmoil created a "your guess is as good as mine" outlook for possible effects, he said. A continued slide in the rupiah would not affect exports because most of Australian cotton's customers were re-exporters. '‘Already a lot of the mills with a domestic customer base are in trouble. But Indonesia will continue to be one of the cheapest and the best places in the world to spin cotton and its such an important part of our economy," he said.

Malaysian palm oil loses market: Malaysian palm oil is fast losing market share inWest Asia due to high prices and big buyers such as India and Pakistan may be the next to cut consumption, traders say. Pacifin Inter-link Sdn, which supplies the bulk of West Asian demand, said its shipment of palm oil to the Gulf shrank 55 per cent in the first four months of 1998 from the same period last year. According to Malaysian Palm Oil Registration and Licensing Authority, imports to the regions 1,60,277 tonnes in the first two months of 1998 against 1,59,922 tonnes in the same period last year. The authority's record show in March imports by seven West Asian states fell to 60,644 tonnes. Pacific Inter-Link manager Nakul Rastogi said that if prices continued to surge, Pakistan and India might cut back orders. India bought 1.38 million palm oil last year while Pakistan imported 1.19 million. Industry officials in India said that palmolein from Malaysia was losing out to soft oils such as sunflower and soyabean from Argentina and Brazil.

Pakistan palm oil imports seen low: Rising palm oilrates in the international market after riots in main exporter Indonesia are forcing Pakistani vegoil importers to look for other options, dealers said last week. "Palm oil prices have dramatically gone up in the international market owing to trouble in Indonesia, palm oil imports are now no longer viable," a dealer at a leading oil mill said. Dealers say domestic vegoil prices have surged during the last few weeks and they will gain further because new imports will be more costly. "There was a steep decline in our palm oil imports last month as importers were on hold waiting for the rates to decline," the dealer said. "But political turmoil in Indonesia has dimmed the chances of a fall in prices abroad." Pakistan's palm oil imports fell to 39,801 tonnes in April from 102,208 tonnes in March, the state Federal Bureau of Statistic said. But its total imports from July 1997 to April 1998 rose to 824,160 from 598,642 during the same period last year.

(Reuters and agencies)