The shortfall is estimated to be around 17 per cent or 10.5 lakh tonnes at 49 lakh tonnes. The states that have witnessed setbacks in the rabi crop are Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh. The output in eastern India and other states are more or less static at 7.5 lakh tonnes while in western states like Gujarat, there has been a mild spurt this year.

According to conservative estimates, Gujarat is likely to witness a five-per cent rise at four lakh tonnes. In 1996-1997, the state's output in rapeseed and mustardseed in 1996-1997 was 3.8 lakh tonnes. The rabi season has been the most unfavourable one mainly due to frequent widespread rains during sowing and also during the subsequent growth stages where humidity levels remained relatively higher in the entire growing belt for a whole month.

The crop loss in UttarPradesh has been over 40 per cent at 6.5 lakh tonnes as against last year's 10.2 lakh. Rajasthan has also seen a drop of 19 per cent at 19.5 lakh tonnes, according to latest estimates. In Punjab and Haryana combined, the shortfall is about 17 per cent at 6.2 lakh tonnes.

Production in Madhya Pradesh declined to 5.3 lakh tonnes from the previous year's 6.5 lakh tonnes. According to PR Kumar, director, Indian Council For Agriculture Research (ICAR), low temperature, high humidity and intermittent rains encouraged various diseases causing severe damage to crops. In certain northern belts, the fall in temperature led to frosts causing extensive damage in some areas. The developments were monitored by ICAR through its National Research Centre in Rajasthan. Rapeseed and mustardseed crops occupy a distinct position in the country not only in terms of acreage but also in terms of diversity in cultivated oilseeds.