The rains must also be normal across the four-month season. In 1996, Rajasthan and Haryana faced floods in June; Bengal and Bihar had to contend with floods in the second-half of July; and excessive rain and cyclonic storm caused extensive damage in Andhra Pradesh. A normal monsoon for the eleventh consecutive year is good news, but this by no means assures a lucky spell for farmers across the country. A normal monsoon can yield a record harvest, as in 1995-96, or a poor one as happened in 1994-95.

Kharif cereals are heavilydependent on rainfall in a large number of states, notably, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra. A delay in rains (before and after sowing) requires protective irrigation, and this in turn requires electricity. These are neglected areas of agricultural policy which has focussed on output growth in the well-endowed regions. To this day, the green revolution has not spread to all districts in the country.

There is also the problem of flood control and drainage. Despite talk of devoting 60 per cent of plan funds to rural development, agriculture faces hazards in vast tracts of the country. One consequence of this has been to increase the amplitude of fluctuation in agricultural output. The country may reap good harvests for a year or two and then face a sharp drop in output.

It is, however, a fact that irrigation development has taken place not just in Punjab and Haryana, but in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and a vast portion of Uttar Pradesh. Why then the excessivepreoccupation with the monsoon? The trouble is that the actual land covered by irrigation is significantly short of the command area. In other places, watershed management (underground storage of rainwater) has been neglected. (Ralegaon Siddhi in Maharashtra is an excellent example of what can be done to optimise scarce rainfall). The country depends on the rain god because it refuses to be self-reliant.