The survey, to be tabled in parliament on Thursday, will include statistics for the full fiscal, against the usual April-December figures taken into account by the department of economic affairs while preparing the document on economic achievements. The survey, which precedes the union budget, is being tabled in parliament in May, instead of in February, because of the change of government at the Centre.

One of the bigger economic concerns during 1997-98, according to finance ministry officials, was the poor performance on the industrial front. Although the change in the base year and basket for index of industrial production (IIP) would help in constructing a more realistic picture of the economy, the fact remains the industry did not do well in the pastfiscal.

Industrial production, as per the 1980-81 IIP, decelerated to 4.2 per cent from 7.1 per cent during the previous fiscal. The worst performance was recorded by the manufacturing sector, which was down to 3.6 per cent, as compared to 8.6 per cent in the previous fiscal. The use-based classification points out that the capital-goods sector, with a weightage of 164.27 points in the old index, registered a negative growth (-4.0 per cent), versus a growth of 5.9 per cent in 1996-97. The other sectors too performed badly.

The survey endeavours to find out reasons for the industry's poor performance in general, and the capital-goods sector in particular. Part of it is on account of a liberal import of capital goods permitted during the last budget. Overall slowdown in industrial activity also hit the sector.

Secondly, undue stress on containing the fiscal deficit through excessive spending curbs added to the slowdown, which was owing to poor demand on the domestic front and subdued exports. On theexternal front, export performance remained dismal. During 1997-98, exports grew by a meagre 2.64 per cent, against 4.1 per cent a year ago. This has also led to deterioration in the trade balance. The survey, sources say, has underlined the need for giving a big push to exports, which assumes added significance in view of the economic sanctions being imposed by the US and Japan after a series of nuclear tests were conducted by India at Pokharan.

Among other things, the survey has also expressed concern over the widening fiscal deficit. Against a target of 4.5 per cent of GDP for 1997-98, the deficit turned out to be 6.1 per cent. This has been mainly on account of a poor revenue realisation, especially customs collection, and the failure of the government to raise money through disinvestment of shares in public-sector undertakings. Against an original target of Rs 4,800 crore, and a revised target of Rs 6,000 crore, the collection as mentioned in the revised estimates was only Rs 907 crore. On sectoralareas, the survey reiterated the need for improving savings and channelising funds for betterment of infrastructure sectors like power, ports and roads.