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Friday, May 29, 1998

Australia farmers concerned about fallout of Asia turmoil 

Michael Byrnes  
Sydney, May 28: Australia's A$20 billion year farm export sector is braced for worsening fallout from the Asia crisis. Most of Australia's wheat, meat, sugar, wool, cotton anddairy products are sold to Asia, helping feed and clothe the region.

But the collapse of many fast-growing Asian markets, once beacons for the future of Australian food and farm exports, has raised such dark clouds that the newly-elected president of Australia's top farm body, the National Farmers' Federation, believes that the worst impact on exports is yet to come.

NFF head Ian Donges, a softly-spoken New South Wales farmer who has been elected to a political hot seat, said he was concerned especially about impacts from Indonesia -- Australia's second-largest market for wheat, one of its largest markets for cotton and a very large buyer of other farm exports. "I think there's worse (in trade effects) to come in the next six to 12 months," he said.

Donges warned of increased crisis fallout on several fronts.

One concernedemergency insurance funding for Australian exports to Indonesia by the Australian government agency, the Export Finance and Insurance Corp (EFIC).

The government recently granted EFIC an emergency fund of A$900 million to back wheat and cotton exports to Indonesia.

Donges raised doubt over the future power of EFIC's shield.

Asked whether Indonesia was actually paying Australia for wheat exports, the farm Chief pointed out that Indonesian payments had "so far" been covered by EFIC insurance.

"I hope that's going to continue. It's going to put a lot of demands on the government because already they are exposed for many billions of dollars," he said. Donges warned that the weaker Australian dollar may not always shield the farm sector from the worst of the crisis.

Machinery and fertiliser were key products which Australia imported, paying in US dollars, and prices for some imports were beginning to rise. Initial protection from existing orders or priced contracts was running out, he said.

The new NFFhead remains confident Asia will bounce back in up to two years to take as many Australian exports as before. But he is not bullish on immediate farm export prospects.

Grain was soft because of a good northern hemisphere wheat crop and price pressure from European subsidies. The best wool could hope for was steady short-term prices because of stiff competition from synthetics and cotton.

And cattle prices were under pressure from a large supply in the United States and Asia's falloff in demand, he said. "It doesn't look like we're going to see a turnaround in the shorter term (but) I do feel in the longer term its going to certainly rebound," Donges said.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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