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Friday, May 29, 1998

Market could test 3,610 level 

K Seshadri  
May 28: The Sensex lost 52 points on Thursday to close at 3721.93. Earlier the Sensex had stabilised at around 3740, after losing only 37 points, close to what was predicted in this column on Thursday. However, the bounce back did not occur. And the last 40 minutes saw a loss of another 20 points.

The market appears to have been influenced by two developments during the trading hours. The first, the fall in the Hong Kong stock market. The second, the Pak rumours that India was preparing to carry out a pre-emptive attack on Pakistan's nuclear installations. The US intelligence agencies had pointed out that they could not find evidence to substantiate these claims.

The news of the Pakistan's nuclear tests came after the markets closed. The latest developments put an added pressure to the technicals. The technicals had clearly indicated that the market was headed south right at the close of the last week. Thursday's development has the potential to push the Sensex down technically to 3610 level. ACC couldmove down to Rs 1619 first and later to even Rs 1549. Arvind Mills might as well withstand the market shock, without much loss. For Bajaj Auto Rs 613 and later Rs 582 are support levels. BHEL could bounce back at Rs 356, if it gets affected by the market turndown. If BSES collapses, which seems unlikely, look for support at Rs 158. Long term investors should look for an opportunity to pick up Glaxo at Rs 369 and Rs 330. Target to buy Gujarat Ambuja between Rs 270 and Rs 255.

HLL could go down to Rs 1563, which corresponds to 2 per cent loss. Long term investors should use any further serious depression in HPCL stock for a small investment. The gain came only because of currently depressed price, as the immediate fortune of the sector is nothing to sing about. Use the occasion to buy into Hindalco for medium to long term. The lowest depression you can expect is Rs 600 for now. ICICI at a possible Rs 88 is an interesting thought, when market goes down. Hold on to Indian Hotel. It may find its moorings at Rs510-500. IPCL might give you the opportunity to pick it up in the Rs 60-53 region.

ITC has shown stability during trading hours. It might withstand the shock on Friday without too much dent. Larsen will have to test Rs 242. Worst case scenario for Reliance could be Rs 158 to Rs 148, possibly the higher base. SAIL might give an investment opportunity at Rs 10. And Rs 242 and Rs 222 is what you should look for support for Telco.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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