The Survey has estimated that the foodgrains production for 1997-98 is likely to decline to 194.13 million tonne as against the record output of 199.3 million tonne in 1996-97. The overall growth of agricultural production is likely to be subdued in 1997-98 when viewed against the high growth of 9.3 per cent in 1996-97.The foodgrain output in 1997-98 will also fall short of the target of 200 million tonne set for the year. The annual compounded growth of foodgrains output in 1997-98 will be only 1.73 per cent as against 3.45 per cent in the previous year. The survey also noted that barring 1996-97, the growth in foodgrains output during nineties has just been about 1.7 per cent which is much lower than the 3.5 per cent annual growth recorded in eighties.
Earlier at the end of the national kharif conference, the agriculture ministry had estimated that the total foodgrain production in 1997-98 would be 195 million tonne.
The survey noted that abnormally cool and wet weather in November-December 1997 inparticular disrupted the normal schedule of wheat sowing as a result the wheat output in the year is likely to decline to 66.4 million tonne as against 69.3 million tonne in 1996-97 and the target of 68.5 million tonne for 1997-98. Similarly is the decline in output of coarse cereals and pulses. The output of coarse cereals in 1997-98 is likely to be 31.1 million tonne as against 34.3 million tonne in 1996-97. The output of pulses in 1997-98 is likely to be 13.1 million tonne as against 14.5 million tonne in 1996-97. However, only the production of rice is likely to exceed the target and stand at 83.5 million tonne.
The foodgrain production suffered in both the kharif and rabi seasons of 1997-98. In kharif season, the foodgrain output is expected to declined to 103.7 million tonne as against 104.4 million tonne in previous year's kharif. In 1997-98 rabi the foodgrain production is likely to decline to 90.4 million tonne from 94.9 million tonne in 1996-97 rabi.
In this context, the Survey cautioned that asthe yield rates appear to have plateaued in major wheat and rice growing areas, the attention would have to shift to those regions where productivity is much below the national average. It, therefore, suggested target areas in eastern UP, Bihar and Orissa should be provided with higher investment in rural infrastructure by way of improved water conservation and delivery system, fertiliser use and credit availability in order to boost production.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.
