The problem is that domestic economies have not been dug out of a hole by a boom in exports, even though Asian goods are much more competitive abroad given the 15 to 80 per cent drop in the value of regional currencies from pre-crisis levels.

"In the aftermath of the Asian currency devaluations last year, many commentators in the West and Asia expected a wave of cheap Southeast Asian and Korean exports to come crashing onto the shores of the G7 markets," said Santander Investment economist Nicholas Brooks.

"They're still waiting."

As expected, the flip side of the sharp currency devaluations has been a dramatic improvement in balance of payments positions, but this has come as a result of collapsing imports, not soaring exports.

In fact, export growth among the nineASEAN countries has actually declined in the past few months, mainly because of a lack of bank financing and weak Japanese demand for imports as the economy there remains stagnant.

Trade with Japan accounts for roughly half of regional trade, but on top of this the sharp contraction of the domestic economies themselves has also hit intra-regional trade.

Analysts say Asia's recovery will be "L" shaped at best and many economies will remain in their dive bomber trajectories for several months, perhaps longer, thwarting official projections for a resumption of growth.

They said while some of the government growth forecasts look hopelessly optimistic, officials are understandably, maybe even unwittingly, predisposed to constructing a best-case scenario.

The latest round of government revisions to growth forecasts are probably doomed to further revision and data already published suggests official estimates of growth contraction this year have already been reached in the first quarter.

The following is aregional breakdown of growth prospects.

The generally accepted definition of a recession is two quarters of economic contraction.

At the end of last week, Hong Kong told the world its economy had contracted by a worrying two per cent in the first quarter of this year.

Analysts and the markets had expected such a figure, but it still was highly significant as this is the first quarterly contraction in Hong Kong in 13 years and many are now talking about a recession in the territory.

Economists say zero or negative GDP is "very likely" this year and the government has said its 3.5 per cent growth forecast looked "unattainable," although it had no revised figure.

"It is highly risky to make a full year forecast in the current situation," said Hong Kong's financial secretary Donald Tsang after the figures were released.

A Reuters survey last August found economists forecasting that 1998 growth would match the 5.3 per cent seen in 1997.

Malaysia has also been notable, showing a sharp and generallyunexpected slowdown in growth. On Saturday, published figures showed the first quarterly contraction in growth since 1985.

First quarter GDP declined 1.8 per cent compared with the same quarter last year, a figure that contrasted sharply with an average forecast by economists for 1.7 per cent growth.Malaysia is a good example of how both market and official growth forecasts have been pared back.A poll of economists on April 22 forecast GDP for 1998 at 0.8 per cent while one in March saw 2.2 per cent and one in January 3.2 per cent.