A large cross-section of Indian producers will derive the benefit of the duty, but the eyes of the shareholders were squarely focussed on the top five or six business houses of the country, whose companies comprise the select group of highly traded stocks on the bourses, and provide people with sustainance and capital gains.

These companies are extremely important to the government's finances as well. Research by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy shows that Indian business houses paid a total of Rs 3,388 crore in corporate taxes last year, which was nearly 25 per cent of the total taxes paid, out of which Rs 2,629 crore worth of taxes were paid by the top 50 Indian business houses.

Corporate organisations established before1950, and those set up between 1950 and 1971 paid in excess of Rs 9,000 crore worth of taxes. A majority of Indian business houses were established during this period.

Here is an FE effort to put in a nutshell the off-the-cuff impressions of what may happen to some of these top industrial houses in the near future as a result of the budgetary impositions:

Tatas (Steel, automobile, aviation, software, power, telecom, tea, hotels)

Outlook 1998-99: Bouquets and brickbats must be flying in Bombay House. What steel gives the group in the budget for 1998-99, the auto sector takes away.A 5 per cent cut in the duty provisions on cold-rolled steel would provide substantial protection to Tisco against rising imports, especially in the context of a biting recession, the rise in excise across-the-board on medium-utility vehicles will mean Telco, the auto flagship will suffer.

Tata Chemicals, the urea producer, will have to sell fertiliser that will be dearer by Rs 1,000 per tonne (urea contributes48 per cent of sales, and if higher prices erode demand, there will be some problems). The imposition of MRP-based excise in tea may force some rethinking on Tata Tea.

Flashback 1996-97: Steel plant at Gopalpur appeared finally postponed, because of political hassles in Orissa with clearances, even as Tisco net profit crashed 31.35 per cent due to a persistent recession. But successful unveiling of Mint, Telco's small car, and successful launch of Safari, Sports Utility Vehicle, ensured gains in auto. Entry into aviation was stumped by Swadeshi upsurge, software companies did well, including Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Sons' wholly-owned subsidiary. Entry into infrastructure sector remained mired in policy paralysis, while the hotels business underwent a tumultuous shake-up due to an acrimonious exit of Indian Hotels chief and long-time Tata loyalist Ajit Kerkar.

A V Birla (Aluminium, cement, VSF, fertiliser, refineries, power, telecom)

Outlook 1998-99:Impetus to housing mayjust allow Grasim to get away to a good start to this year, while Indo-Gulf Fertilisers will be under pressure to sell urea (which contributes to around 90 per cent of its sales) at Rs 1,000 more per tonne. Capital goods for refineries have been exempt from the eight per cent special import duty, so the group's collective brains trust, emerging as one of the most respected in Indian industry, may heave a sigh of relief. Power and telecom projects have got tax holidays, Birla AT&T must be a better bet than ever.

Flashback 1996-97: Kumarmangalam Birla appeared to come out of his father's shadows, and took over a VSF raw material plant in Canada. Suffered substantial losses in operations abroad as South East Asian economy crashed.

Fertiliser, through a 40 per cent jump in urea production and a 31 per cent-plus rise in net profit of Indo-Gulf Fertilisers, did exceptionally well, Hindalco became the country's largest primary metal producer. Grasim and Indian Rayon struggled as cement and rayonbusinesses dragged back results.

Ambanis (Petrochemicals, oil and gas, power, telecom, textiles, roads, ports, highways, water supply, LPG, refineries)

Outlook 1998-99:With crude import duties down (on top of a 12-year low in international crude prices) and huge reliefs in the infrastructure sector, it appears Reliance has thought this one out well. Paraxylene will attract lower duties, but Reliance can compete due to its low production costs. The eight per cent protection can make a huge difference to Reliance's competitiveness in petrochemical and textiles, because the company till date sold at interntaional parity. However, a clearer picture on this can emerge only after detailed notifications arrive.

Flashback 1996-97: Ambanis finally claimed, through a never-before press conference, a top slot in Indian industry. In a year when seven or eight Indian textile and petrochemicals companies crashed into an ever-growing sea of red, Reliance Industries pushed 97 per cent of itsproducts in the domestic market, and fought price decline through volumes growth. Steady construction continued at India's largest ever manufacturing complex at Jamnagar for a huge refinery, telecom made a cautious start.

The Ruias of Essar (Oil and gas, steel, power, telecom, refineries)

Outlook 1998-99: With large scale reliefs in the infrastructure sector, it would appear that the Essar group is sitting on a number of good projects.

The group's steel flagship had tentative plans of setting up a cold rolling mill, the CRM may now come to be due to the five per cent increase in customs duty, which will definitely give it protection till implementation. The lower duty on crude will help the refinery being built by Essar Oil.

Flashback 1996-97: Essar Steel ended the year with a perfectly respectable inventory cycle of 24 to 25 days in a difficult market, and ended 1997-98 with 37 per cent higher turnover. The group continued to answer charges that the promoters were benefiting atthe cost of shareholders, the Ruias counter-attacked by saying that strategic decisions taken years ago do not weigh down present operations.

Bajaj (automobile)

Outlook 1998-99: It appears that Bajaj Auto will gain most not necessarily just from the business prospects, but also from the influence that Rahul Bajaj, the chairman and managing director of the company, has obviously had on the finance minister's policy-framing.

The eight per cent special import duty is obviously a straight indicator that Indian industry's plea for a level-playing field, most eloquently voiced by Bajaj, has helped the FM make up his mind. With the protection cushion for a while, Bajaj should be able to bridge the design and R&D gaps for which his flagship Bajaj Auto has been criticised in the past.

Flashback 1996-97:Rahul Bajaj was not just fighting his own battle with LML, which used solus ads to claim it was growing faster than Bajaj Auto, India's largest two-wheeler maker. But the maker of HamaraBajaj also spoke up relentlessly for Indian industry, saying that full utilisation of capacities already built up by creating the right conditions for Indian business was as important as inviting foreign investment.

Goenkas (Tyre, carbon black, power, telecom, polyester staple fibre)

Outlook 1998-99: There have been substantial incentives in power, but unfortunately none for transmission and distribution, which is the major activity of the RPG group of companies. Tyre is not going to be able to ride at least on an automobile revival: it appears the finance minister has not given much to that sector either. Implementing the telecom projects at hand seem to be one way for the group to cut through the knots.

Flashback 1996-97: The group went into a dizzying round of disinvestment in unrelated areas, and got rid of so much baggage in a few months that it must feel light-headed. Out went the partnership with Goodyear for tyres, but Ceat itself seems in no great shape to tackle therecession.

Khaitans (Tea, batteries, aluminium, engineering)

Outlook 1998-99: Levy of excise on maximum retail price may create some extra outflows in the tea business, in which the group is doing exceptionally well in north India. Batteries will have some competition from solar cells. Downstream aluminium production may suffer on account of higher primary aluminium prices, bound to result from the eight per cent special import duty.

Flashback 1996-97:Following a merger between Eveready Industries and McLeod Russel two years ago, the group has been choosing between new businesses, and appears to have hit upon food processing as a likely new area. Batteries growth continues to be slow, rivals are creeping up. As the Indian corporate sector struggles through the brambles of the worst recession in post-reform memory, the top Indian business houses have been in absolute centre focus.