India will enjoy a monopoly in the international market, as the crop failure will push up demand for its castor oil.

Brazilian castorseeds crop during the year is expected to fall to about 40,000 tonnes, against an earlier estimate of 1.50 lakh tonnes. Monsoon failure in Brazil will turn the net exporter of castorseeds into a net importer.

Demand for castor oil from China this year is also likely to double at 50,000-60,000 tonnes owing to poor crop and rise in domestic needs.

China imports about 30,000 tonnes of castor oil annually. India beat Brazil in castor-oil exports in 1995 and 1996. Brazil was forced to halt exports during those years owing to crop shortfall. This led to an increase in Indian castor-oil exports to 2.50 lakh tonnes and 2.65 lakh tonnes respectively.

The trend was reversed in calendar 1997 when Brazil exported 30,000 tonnes of thecommodity, and Indian exports were pushed down to 2.00 lakh tonnes.

According to estimates, demand for castor oil in the country will be about 100,000 tonnes, as there has been a notable rise in demand from industrial users.