NEW DELHI, June 5: Former finance minister Manmohan Singh has said that the Union Budget does not outline any clear strategy for growth and its highly protectionist measures would only promote inefficiency in the Indian industry in the name of providing a level-playing- field."The 1998-99 Budget does not have a clear strategy of a seven to eight per cent growth in the regime of price stability", he said emphasising that the government had not taken into account the post-Pokhran situation and the effect of sanctions.
"They are behaving as if nothing has happened and that sanctions will not affect the country", he told the agency in an interview. The sanctions will create an atmosphere of uncertainty which he feared would erode the confidence of the foreign investor and lead to a slowdown in investment flow.
Singh, who is Opposition leader in Rajya Sabha, said he was not against encouraging the domestic industry but the measures outlined in the Budget would only encourage inefficiency in the industry andtake away their initiative to innovate or modernise and remain competitive.
The additional customs duty of eight per cent coming over the levy of five per cent of last year will only help to increase the profit margins of certain industries. But those who depend on imported inputs will be adversely hit as their costs would go up.
These measures would lead to cost push inflation at the levels of eight-and-a-half per cent which was unmanageable and would certainly affect the common man -- especially the poor, he said. "The budget is soft on the rich and super rich and harsh on the poor", he pointed out.
Going by the government's own admission, the nominal GDP rate would be around 15 per cent. GDP growth as per official estimates is only 6.5 per cent. This means that inflation would be around 8.5 per cent. "I, however, feel it would be much more," he said.
He feared the reforms process would slow down affecting macro economic stability which had been achieved after the liberlisation began in 1991.Thegovernment has projected 5.6 per cent fiscal deficit and this expectation could go awry. This would lead to further inflation forcing interest rates to go up.
He did not subscribe to government assertion that the Budget did not list any concessions to exporters as the Exim and credit policy had taken care of this. On the contrary, the protectionist measures in the Budget would negate some of the steps taken in the Exim policy to boost exports.
Singh took exception to government projections that the growth rate would be accelerated with increased state spending on infrastructure. "Growth could be achieved only by equally stimulating demand and supply sides. But I think there is a substantial amount of uncertainty after the Pokhran nuclear tests," he said.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.