MUMBAI, June 9: "Herd mentality never pays a genuine investor" is an old adage on Dalal Street. And investors who jumped on to the software bandwagon with absolute disregard for fundamentals may like to know that the market regulator has trained its guns on scrips which saw their prices spiral by a mere change in name.In the first such instance, SEBI has launched a probe into a significant rise in the share price of Cyberspace Infosystems soon after it changed its name from Century International.
"It is an interesting case, hence we would like to get an insight into the working of this company and also gauge the basis of the change of name which could have been manipulated," said a senior SEBI official. The attraction of investors to infotech stocks had become such a joke that there were some companies who had actually rued the fact that they did not have "software" as a suffix.
And while there were some infotech stocks which were genuinely rising on pure fundamentals and future prospects there were anumber of non-specified group stocks which rose sharply defying all logic whatsoever.
In the case of Cyberspace nee Century International, the stock recorded a new 52-week high of Rs 26 on May 12, before the change in name. With the change in name the stock propelled past the Rs 50 levels on the back of the software fever, to touch a new high of Rs 55.50 on June 8, when the general sentiment in the market continued to be bearish.
"Small investors who failed to participate in the big ticket stocks like Infosys and Satyam for various reasons, turned their attention to the small stocks," explained an infotech industry research analyst. Market analysts also bring to light a cruel fact of how small investors do not get an opportunity to participate in the fundamentally sound companies since their P/E ratios are quite high and the prices have reached their peaks.
"Despite having lost huge amounts by this herd mentality attitude investors still seem to be getting into sectors on the basis of the growthpotential of a few stocks", said a BSE broker, who had been an active participant in the 1992 boom.
"History repeats itself," he added. "Even if one goes by the simple theory of supply and demand, it is understood that the rush for any particular industry stock always provides an exit to the bull operators who warehouse stocks," he explained.
The scene was no different this time around. In March there was a sudden rush for infotech stocks. As expected the fancy started off with fundamentally sound stocks like Infosys, Bharati Telecom and Wipro and trickled down to the rest.
Castrol comes under watchdog glare
SEBI has decided to probe into the trading pattern of Castrol for the period between February and April 1998. According to sources, the regulator has sought trading details on the Castrol counter from both the BSE and NSE. The regulatory authority on Tuesday also sought information on the sharp fall in Videocon International and BPL scrips. Videocon International was hammered down to a lowof Rs 122.20 on the NSE, where it hit the lower end of the price band.
Although the purpose of such a detailed investigation in the Castrol scrip was not revealed by the SEBI officials concerned, market sources hint that the involvement of the bull operators could have prompted them to reach out to the root cause of the sharp rise in the stock's price and volumes.
The book closure period for Castrol was between March 24 and April 20, while the stock continued to be traded in the no-delivery phase on the BSE during February.
A prominent feature of this period was that the stock was the second highest traded stock on the BSE's specified section with the price surging beyond Rs 600 levels. However, according to market players there is nothing unusual about the stock recording a sharp gain in terms of price or volumes during the no-delivery phase, since investors are out of the trading arena.
Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.