The shortage will exert immense pressure from global buyers on India, which is the largest producer of castorseeds in the world. The El-Nino effect was the major reason for the Brazil crop failure, agro experts said. Due to failure of castorseeds crop in Brazil, India will have a monopoly in the global market and can dictate price swings, they said.

The Brazilian castorseed crop during the year is expected to fall to about 40,000 tons against the earlier estimate of 1.50 lakh tons. Failure of monsoon in Brazil will turn the big exporter into a net importer. Demand of castor oil from China this year is also likely to double at 50-60 thousand tons due to poor crop and rise in domestic demand. Normally China imports about 30,000 tons of castor oil annually. Internationally the phenomenon of India beating Brazil in theexport of castor-oil was witnessed during the years 1995 and 1996. Brazil was forced to halt its export during those years due to shortfall in its castorseeds crop. This led to an increase in exports of Indian castor oil at 2.50 lakh tons and 2.65 lakh tons respectively. The trend was reversed in the calender year 1997 when Brazil exported more at 30,000 tons of castor oil and Indian exports of this commodity fell to two lakh tons.

According to estimates domestic demand for castor oil in the country will be about a lakh ton as there has been a notable rise in the demand from industrial users of the commodity. India has exported around a lakh ton of castor oil during the first five months of the current calender year. The international importers will look up at India for an additional 1.30-1.50 lakh tons of castor oil in the coming months, confirmed Jagu Tanna, chairman Jamnadaas Madhavji International Ltd., a leading export house dealing in castor oil. But whether India will be able to supply the requiredquantity remains to be seen in the light of a downward revision of castor crop. The domestic output for castorseed has been downed to 6.5 lakh tons from about 7.5 lakh tons. The revised estimate translates into 2.75 lakh tons of castor oil. Moreover, there is no surplus stock from the previous year's production. India will also need further 50,000 tons of castor oil to meet its domestic demand for the rest of the year. Thus in all, the country will need 3.5 lakh tons additional to take care of both, the domestic and export front. According to Tanna, daily arrivals of castor seeds in the country is about 25,000 bags. Out of the national crop of 6.5 lakh tons, Gujarat alone accounts for 5.5 lakh tons and the rest by other states. This means India will not be able to meet global demands and perhaps loose an opportunity to fill the void created by Brazil.