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Tuesday, June 16, 1998

Next support level at 3,074 but sensex may go down to 2,721 

K Seshadri  
Mumbai, June 15: Several factors combined together to pull the Sensex down by a mighty 195 points. The decision of the G-8 nations to punish India for carrying out nuclear tests by blocking World Bank loans and the contagion effect of Yen's depreciation combined to drive prices down.

Technically, the Sensex has the potential to take support at 3074. Should that fail, you should know that the market can go down to 2721 levels. Here we are looking at a picture over several years. And therefore, the technical forecasts are mere anticipations, which offer only limited scope for confirmatory, prior testing by linear progression.

The market had been trying to stabilise itself before today's downfall came.

Even if the market had been sliding in the normal course, (in fact the slide was breaking and the Sensex was attempting a correction) it would have taken four days to lose 200 points, which it lost in a single day today.

But today's fall could end up changing perceptions and attitudes. The figures of FIIinvestment over the last week would shortly be available. That should help to find out if the low prices had attracted FII purchases.

But now that the background scenario has changed. The fall out of the Yen has affected other south Asian markets as well. So even though Indian scrips have moved down further to even more attractive levels, the other Asian stocks too have now become competitively attractive.

So one cannot assume that the low prices will trigger FII buying. Some heavy weights and long term investment scrips have suffered modest dents, and have not gone down all the way to the immediate previous lows. They are testing their market value.

Quite likely that will bring in FII investments in such scrips. Because if FIIs do not step in, the local punters might again jack it up to extract a price. Let us not forget that it were the local punters who reportedly built up huge positions right from March in anticipation of the budget. Given the low values today, they can again repeat their exercise.Never say die is the norm for punters!

State Bank, Reliance Industries, Colgate and Glaxo are some of the scrips which have once again become attractive. But even those who make an entry should be prepared for a few weeks more for the market to recover.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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