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Friday, June 19, 1998

Ebbing confidence 

 
Business expectations have sagged after the 1998-99 budget. According to a preliminary report on a CII business outlook survey, 63 per cent of 450 corporate respondents have either projected no improvement in the prospects for the next six months or forecast a worsening scenario. The gloom is dominated by steel, commercial vehicles and capital goods industries in the main. These are the very industries that took the brunt of a slow down last year. The budget has failed to improve sentiment. Three specific points have been made against the budget: the 4 per cent non-modvatable countervailing duty raises costs of imported inputs; the withholding of 5 per cent of modvat credit on excise adversely affects manufacturing companies; and the continuance of zero duty on capital goods imports pushes the domestic capital goods industries to the wall. The short point is that the budget proposals actually abet the industrial slow down in evidence for two years.

The hike in proposed public investment is not matched bybudget support. Infrastructure growth remains a grey area. Economic policy has ignored the concerns arising from sanctions, the volatile share markets and the second Asian flu that has put the rupee under pressure. In fine, the budget has been a routine exercise without a focus. The policy maker has no footwork. The impact of the Gujarat cyclone on exports from the state's ports has yet to be assessed; there is no strategy of diverting these to other ports. Such omissions and neglect are at bottom responsible for ebbing business confidence. The industrial scenario does have a few silver linings: rising cement offtake, excellent growth in construction and housing finance, high growth in consumer durables, a surge in computer hardware and software. It is time for a SWOT analysis and bold measures to counter weaknesses.

Copyright © 1998 Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay) Ltd.


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