Of the average annual rainfall of 1,139 mm received by Karnataka, about 70 per cent is in the June-July period which is also the sowing season for kharif crops. However, the delay in rainfall this year will have a severe impact on rainfed crops like rice, ragi and jowar.

The south-west monsoon is known to hit the coast areas in the state during the first week of June and by the middle of the month all the meteorological divisions in the state are covered. This year, only the coastal districts of Dakshina Kanada, Uttara Kanada and Kodagu have received rains so far. The danger point is July 1 beyond which if monsoons don't hit the plains, the sowing period in June and July will be delayed and will affect the crop yield, officials added.

The rainfall in the kharif season is crucial because 70 per cent of the state's total production of food cropscomes from this season. The second peak of rainfall in the state is during September and October which coincides with the flowering period of the crops.

The total sown areas for this kharif is 72 lakh hectares of which foodgrains like cereals cover 33.30 lakh hectares, pulses 11.79 hectares and oilseeds (18.34 hectares). The balance is covered by commercial crops like sugarcane, cotton and tobacco which are perennial crops. The production targets for the season are 64.83 lakh tonnes of cereal with a yield of 1,947 kgs per hectare, 70.39 lakh tonnes of pulses with a yield of 472 kg per hectare and 13.93 lakh tonnes of oilseeds with a yield of 760 kg per hectare.

Cotton covers 6.20 lakh hectares and the agriculture department has set a target of 10.25 lakh tonnes for the current year with an estimated yield of 281 kgs per hectare.

Sugarcane is also a popular commercial crop in the state and covers 2.61 lakh hectares. The production target for this year's sugarcane crop is 281 lakh tonnes and the yield isexpected to be 108 kg per hectare.

Tobacco growers in the state are currently enjoying a price advantage. Several hectares of land have shifted from cotton to tobacco over the past two years owing to this factor. The crop covers 52,000 hectare and has a targeted production figure of 50,000 tonnes per annum. The yield per hectare works out to 962 kgs.

Kharif 1997-98 saw widespread crop failure, low yields and consequent shortfalls in target was the result of lopsided climatic conditions. While the kharif season saw near drought conditions, the rabi season experienced unseasonal rainfall and floods. This also resulted in suicides by farmers in some districts of the state.

The shortfall in production did not affect the prices of cereals and pulses to a large extent because of the bumper crop of 1996-97 which saw large surpluses in both types of food crops, according to officials.

But if there is a second consecutive crop failure, there will be a shortfall in supply and unless the difference is made goodthrough an efficient public distribution with help from the centre, an upward movement in prices is quite likely.

Most of the production during the previous year's Kharif season fell short of target by a wide margin. Only estimated figures are available with the state's agriculture department. The production of cereals was targeted at 62.25 lakh tonnes and only 58.16 lakh tonnes of production was achieved. Pulses fared no better with production of 2.60 lakh tonnes against a target of 5.38 lakh tonnes. Oilseeds were the worst hit with production figures of 7.73 lakh tonnes which were approximately half of the state's kharif target of 13.41 lakh tonnes.

The state's cotton crop was also hit by the anomalies in the monsoon. The cotton production was only seven lakh bales compared to the target of 10 lakh bales. Tobacco production on the other hand fared better since it is essentially an irrigated crop. Tobacco production was 58,000 tonnes against a target of 51,000 tonnes. The sugarcane production of 264.10lakh tonnes was lower than the target figure of 268.76 lakh tonnes.

The state's main cereals are rice, ragi, jawar and maize. A major share of the pulses grown in the state is attributed to toor dal, green gram and horse gram. A major share in the state's oilseeds production, is taken by groundnut, which ise also a the main cash crop for the state.

While agriculture, which includes the production of foodgrains, oilseeds and commercial crops makes up for 110 lakh hectares of the total land sown in the state, 13 lakh tonnes is attributed to horticulture and 1.80 lakh tonnes to coffee.